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Gossau v Baden

Gossau

3–2Full time

Baden

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Gossau 3–2 Baden BADEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Baden win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.721

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gossau win32%

Draw21%

Baden win47%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · baden winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Baden a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.1, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gossau win	32%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Baden win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Gossau or draw	53%	–	–
Gossau clean sheet	13%	–	–
Baden clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.0%

0123450 2.5 4.5 4.8 3.4 1 3.7 8.0 8.0 5.6 3.0 2 3.3 6.7 6.8 4.8 2.6 3 3.9 4.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gossau down, Baden across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,214 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gossau at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Baden away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Gossau, 2.12 for Baden. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAD 4–0 GOS · GOS 3–3 BAD

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3

GOSSAU

DLLWLW2–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 4–1

BADEN

WWLWLL3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tuggen	9	+11	20
2	St. Gallen II	9	+4	19
3	Taverne	9	+11	17
4	Thalwil	9	+7	16
5	Baden	9	+5	16
6	Kosova	9	+4	16
7	Collina d'Oro	9	−1	14
8	Dietikon	9	−2	11
9	Gossau	9	−5	11
10	Freienbach	9	−3	10
11	Wettswil-Bonstetten	10	−3	9
12	Winterthur II	9	−4	9
13	Mendrisio	9	−2	8
14	Eschen / Mauren	8	−7	8
15	Locarno	9	−2	7
16	Widnau	9	−13	5