Baden v Widnau prediction · 1. Liga Classic

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Baden 6–0 Widnau BADEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Baden win~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.154

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Baden are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Baden 68%, draw 17%, Widnau 15%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Baden v WidnauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Baden win68%

Draw17%

Widnau win15%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 11

VenueEsp Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baden

Widnau

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Erste Liga Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · Erste Liga Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Baden	10	+4	16
16	Widnau	10	−13	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · baden winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Baden a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Baden v Widnau~~2.59 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 6~~5 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baden win	68%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Widnau win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Baden or draw	85%	–	–
Baden clean sheet	32%	–	–
Widnau clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.6 2.8 1 6.3 7.2 4.1 2 8.0 9.0 5.1 3 6.9 7.7 4.4 4 4.5 5.0 2.8 5 2.4 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Baden down, Widnau across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Baden at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Widnau away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.59 goals for Baden, 1.14 for Widnau. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WID 3–1 BAD · BAD 3–1 WID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

BADEN

WLWLLL3–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–3

WIDNAU

DWLLLD0–0 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 4–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St. Gallen II	10	+5	22
2	Tuggen	10	+11	21
3	Taverne	10	+13	20
4	Thalwil	10	+5	16
5	Baden	10	+4	16
6	Kosova	10	+3	16
7	Collina d'Oro	10	−1	15
8	Dietikon	10	0	14
9	Gossau	10	−4	14
10	Eschen / Mauren	10	−3	12
11	Locarno	10	−1	10
12	Freienbach	10	−4	10
13	Wettswil-Bonstetten	10	−3	9
14	Winterthur II	10	−8	9
15	Mendrisio	10	−4	8
16	Widnau	10	−13	6