Zug v Black Stars prediction · 1. Liga Classic

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Zug 4–2 Black Stars BLACK STARS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Black Stars win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.610

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Black Stars just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Zug 37%, draw 24%, Black Stars 39%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Zug v Black StarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Zug win37%

Draw24%

Black Stars win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zug

Black Stars

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Erste Liga Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Zug	10	−10	10
15	Black Stars	10	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · black stars winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Black Stars a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zug v Black Stars~~1.64 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 9~~14 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zug win	37%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Black Stars win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Zug or draw	61%	–	–
Zug clean sheet	19%	–	–
Black Stars clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.4 5.5 5.1 2.9 1 5.3 10.4 8.2 4.7 2.0 2 4.8 7.9 6.7 3.8 3 2.6 4.4 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zug down, Black Stars across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,221 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zug at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Black Stars away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Zug, 1.70 for Black Stars. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ZUG 5–0 BLA · BLA 3–1 ZUG · ZUG 0–1 BLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

ZUG

DLWLLW2–2 · 2–6 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1

BLACK STARS

WDLDDL1–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Langenthal	10	+9	23
2	Schötz	10	+13	20
3	Courtételle	10	+9	19
4	Concordia Basel	10	+7	17
5	Delémont	10	+7	17
6	Muttenz	10	+4	17
7	Solothurn	10	+5	16
8	Grasshopper II	10	−1	15
9	Buochs	10	−2	13
10	Muri-Gümligen	10	−4	13
11	Thun II	10	−3	12
12	FC Wohlen	10	−4	12
13	Bassecourt	10	−9	10
14	Zug	10	−10	10
15	Black Stars	10	−3	9
16	Münsingen	10	−18	2