Thun II v Zug prediction · 1. Liga Classic

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Thun IIDrawZug

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Thun II 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Thun II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Thun II 46%, draw 21%, Zug 33%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Thun II v ZugBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Thun II win46%

Draw21%

Zug win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Thun II

Zug

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Zug	11	−8	13
13	Thun II	11	−5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · thun ii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Thun II a 46% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Thun II v Zug~~2.11 – 1.77

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 13~~13 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Thun II win	46%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Zug win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Thun II or draw	67%	–	–
Thun II clean sheet	18%	–	–
Zug clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.7 3.4 3.3 1 4.1 8.1 6.7 4.0 2 4.6 8.0 6.9 4.1 3 3.3 5.6 4.9 2.9 4 3.0 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Thun II down, Zug across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,227 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.3% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Thun II at home: 2.50 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zug away: 1.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Thun II, 1.77 for Zug. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

THUN II

DDLWLL2–2 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 2–0 · 5–6 · 1–3

ZUG

LWLLWW2–6 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Langenthal	10	+9	23
2	Courtételle	11	+11	22
3	Schötz	11	+11	20
4	Muttenz	11	+6	20
5	Solothurn	11	+7	19
6	Delémont	10	+7	17
7	Concordia Basel	11	+6	17
8	Buochs	11	−1	16
9	Muri-Gümligen	11	−3	16
10	Grasshopper II	11	−3	15
11	Zug	11	−8	13
12	FC Wohlen	10	−4	12
13	Thun II	11	−5	12
14	Bassecourt	10	−9	10
15	Black Stars	11	−5	9
16	Münsingen	11	−19	2