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Thun II v Muttenz

Thun II

5–6Full time

Muttenz

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Thun II 5–6 Muttenz MUTTENZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Muttenz win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.401

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Match events aren’t available for this match.

Pre-match prediction

Thun II win30%

Draw21%

Muttenz win49%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muttenz winPublished 10 Oct 18:18

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Muttenz a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Thun II win	30%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Muttenz win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Thun II or draw	51%	–	–
Thun II clean sheet	12%	–	–
Muttenz clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.1%

0123450 2.7 4.0 4.9 3.5 1 3.1 8.0 8.1 5.9 3.3 2 3.0 6.4 6.8 5.0 2.8 3 3.7 3.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Thun II down, Muttenz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,213 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.3% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Thun II at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Muttenz away: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Thun II, 2.20 for Muttenz. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MUT 3–1 THU · THU 2–2 MUT · THU 3–3 MUT · MUT 1–2 THU

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2

THUN II

LWDDLW2–5 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 2–0

MUTTENZ

LDWLWD1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Langenthal	9	+9	22
2	Schötz	9	+10	17
3	Courtételle	9	+7	16
4	Grasshopper II	9	+2	15
5	Concordia Basel	9	+4	14
6	Muttenz	9	+3	14
7	Delémont	9	+3	14
8	Solothurn	9	+4	13
9	Buochs	9	+2	13
10	Muri-Gümligen	9	−2	13
11	Thun II	9	−2	12
12	FC Wohlen	9	−4	11
13	Bassecourt	9	−6	10
14	Black Stars	9	−2	9
15	Zug	9	−11	7
16	Münsingen	9	−17	2