Münsingen v Zug prediction · 1. Liga Classic

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Münsingen 1–2 Zug MÜNSINGEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Münsingen win~~45%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.754

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.608

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Münsingen win45%

Draw25%

Zug win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Münsingen

Zug

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Zug	9	−11	7
16	Münsingen	9	−17	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · münsingen winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

45% The market38%

Us45%

~~Market~~38%

We make Münsingen a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · münsingen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Münsingen win	45%	38%	+7
Draw	25%	25%	−1
Zug win	30%	37%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	60%	62%	−3
Both teams to score	61%	65%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	38%	42%	−5
Münsingen or draw	70%	63%	+7
Münsingen clean sheet	26%	–	–
Zug clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.4 5.6 4.3 1 7.2 11.2 7.2 3.3 2 6.7 9.0 6.2 2.9 3 3.9 5.2 3.6 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Münsingen down, Zug across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,219 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Münsingen at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Zug away: 1.33 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Münsingen, 1.37 for Zug. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ZUG 3–2 MUN · MUN 2–2 ZUG · ZUG 0–0 MUN · MUN 2–1 ZUG

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2

MÜNSINGEN

DLDLLL0–0 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–3

ZUG

WDLWLL2–1 · 2–2 · 2–6 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Langenthal	10	+9	23
2	Schötz	10	+13	20
3	Courtételle	10	+9	19
4	Concordia Basel	10	+7	17
5	Delémont	10	+7	17
6	Muttenz	10	+4	17
7	Grasshopper II	10	−1	15
8	Solothurn	9	+4	13
9	Buochs	10	−2	13
10	Muri-Gümligen	10	−4	13
11	Thun II	10	−3	12
12	FC Wohlen	10	−4	12
13	Bassecourt	10	−9	10
14	Black Stars	9	−2	9
15	Zug	9	−11	7
16	Münsingen	9	−17	2