Buochs v Concordia Basel prediction · 1. Liga Classic

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Buochs 1–0 Concordia Basel CONCORDIA BASEL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Concordia Basel win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.776

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Concordia Basel are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Buochs 29%, draw 23%, Concordia Basel 47%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Buochs v Concordia BaselBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Buochs win29%

Draw23%

Concordia Basel win47%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Buochs

Concordia Basel

6Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · Erste Liga Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Concordia Basel	10	+7	17
9	Buochs	10	−2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · concordia basel winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Concordia Basel a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Buochs v Concordia Basel~~1.46 – 1.90

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 17~~9 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Buochs win	29%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Concordia Basel win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Buochs or draw	53%	–	–
Buochs clean sheet	15%	–	–
Concordia Basel clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.3 6.1 6.3 4.0 1 4.6 10.2 8.9 5.6 2.7 2 3.8 6.9 6.5 4.1 3 3.4 3.2 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Buochs down, Concordia Basel across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,221 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Buochs at home: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Concordia Basel away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Buochs, 1.90 for Concordia Basel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BUO 2–2 CON · CON 3–0 BUO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 this season · since 5 Sept

BUOCHS

DWWLLL2–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–4

CONCORDIA BASEL

LLWWWW1–2 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 5–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Langenthal	10	+9	23
2	Schötz	10	+13	20
3	Courtételle	10	+9	19
4	Concordia Basel	10	+7	17
5	Delémont	10	+7	17
6	Muttenz	10	+4	17
7	Solothurn	10	+5	16
8	Grasshopper II	10	−1	15
9	Buochs	10	−2	13
10	Muri-Gümligen	10	−4	13
11	Thun II	10	−3	12
12	FC Wohlen	10	−4	12
13	Bassecourt	10	−9	10
14	Zug	10	−10	10
15	Black Stars	10	−3	9
16	Münsingen	10	−18	2