Stade Payerne v Servette II prediction · 1. Liga Classic

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Stade Payerne 3–3 Servette II SERVETTE II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Servette II win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.075

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Servette II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stade Payerne 20%, draw 19%, Servette II 61%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Stade Payerne v Servette IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Stade Payerne win20%

Draw19%

Servette II win61%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stade Payerne

Servette II

7Days since last match13

Last match: 17 Oct · Erste Liga Cup

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Servette II	10	+3	21
13	Stade Payerne	10	−7	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · servette ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Servette II a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.5, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stade Payerne v Servette II~~1.35 – 2.46

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 21~~13 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stade Payerne win	20%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Servette II win	61%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Stade Payerne or draw	39%	–	–
Stade Payerne clean sheet	9%	–	–
Servette II clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.9%

0123450 2.6 5.4 6.7 5.5 3.4 1 2.9 7.6 8.9 7.2 4.5 2.32 2.1 4.9 5.9 4.8 3.0 3 2.2 2.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Payerne down, Servette II across0–5 goals a side shown (95.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,221 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stade Payerne at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Servette II away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Stade Payerne, 2.46 for Servette II. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~STA 0–6 SER · SER 2–0 STA · SER 6–3 STA · STA 1–2 SER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

STADE PAYERNE

LLWLLW1–2 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 3–1

SERVETTE II

WDWWDW3–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azzurri Bienne	10	+15	24
2	Prishtina Bern	10	+18	23
3	Servette II	10	+3	21
4	Lausanne Sport II	10	+8	17
5	Sion II	10	+3	16
6	Portalban / Gletterens	10	+5	14
7	Monthey	10	+2	14
8	Naters	10	−7	14
9	Lancy	10	−1	13
10	Echallens	10	−6	12
11	Meyrin	10	+3	11
12	Chênois	10	−2	11
13	Stade Payerne	10	−7	10
14	La Chaux-de-Fonds	10	−17	10
15	Coffrane	10	−4	7
16	Vevey Sports	10	−13	4