Naters v Lancy prediction · 1. Liga Classic

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Naters 2–1 Lancy LANCY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lancy win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.587

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lancy just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Naters 38%, draw 22%, Lancy 40%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Naters v LancyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Naters win38%

Draw22%

Lancy win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Naters

Lancy

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Erste Liga Cup

Last match: 16 Oct · Erste Liga Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Naters	10	−7	14
9	Lancy	10	−1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lancy winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Lancy a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Naters v Lancy~~1.86 – 1.90

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 13~~8 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naters win	38%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Lancy win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Naters or draw	60%	–	–
Naters clean sheet	15%	–	–
Lancy clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.7 4.3 4.3 2.7 1 4.2 8.5 7.7 4.9 2.3 2 4.1 7.5 7.0 4.4 2.1 3 2.5 4.7 4.4 2.8 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naters down, Lancy across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,221 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Naters at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Lancy away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Naters, 1.90 for Lancy. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LAN 0–1 NAT · NAT 3–0 LAN · NAT 1–1 LAN · LAN 1–0 NAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

NATERS

WLWWLL2–1 · 2–5 · 4–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–4

LANCY

LLLLWW1–3 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azzurri Bienne	10	+15	24
2	Prishtina Bern	10	+18	23
3	Servette II	10	+3	21
4	Lausanne Sport II	10	+8	17
5	Sion II	10	+3	16
6	Portalban / Gletterens	10	+5	14
7	Monthey	10	+2	14
8	Naters	10	−7	14
9	Lancy	10	−1	13
10	Echallens	10	−6	12
11	Meyrin	10	+3	11
12	Chênois	10	−2	11
13	Stade Payerne	10	−7	10
14	La Chaux-de-Fonds	10	−17	10
15	Coffrane	10	−4	7
16	Vevey Sports	10	−13	4