Chênois v Stade Payerne prediction · 1. Liga Classic

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ChênoisDrawStade Payerne

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Chênois 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chênois are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chênois 58%, draw 21%, Stade Payerne 21%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Chênois v Stade PayerneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Chênois win58%

Draw21%

Stade Payerne win21%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chênois

Stade Payerne

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Chênois	11	−1	14
14	Stade Payerne	11	−7	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chênois winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Chênois a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chênois v Stade Payerne~~2.12 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 11~~9 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chênois win	58%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Stade Payerne win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Chênois or draw	79%	–	–
Chênois clean sheet	30%	–	–
Stade Payerne clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.0 4.2 2.7 1 7.5 9.4 5.5 2.3 2 8.0 9.5 5.7 2.3 3 5.6 6.7 4.0 4 3.0 3.6 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chênois down, Stade Payerne across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,227 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.3% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chênois at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Stade Payerne away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Chênois, 1.21 for Stade Payerne. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CHE 2–2 STA · CHE 2–0 STA · STA 0–0 CHE · CHE 1–2 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

CHÊNOIS

WWDLLW4–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 2–1

STADE PAYERNE

LWLLWD1–4 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Azzurri Bienne	11	+16	27
2	Prishtina Bern	11	+22	26
3	Servette II	11	+3	22
4	Lausanne Sport II	11	+7	17
5	Naters	11	−6	17
6	Sion II	11	+1	16
7	Portalban / Gletterens	10	+5	14
8	Monthey	10	+2	14
9	Chênois	11	−1	14
10	Lancy	11	−2	13
11	La Chaux-de-Fonds	11	−15	13
12	Echallens	11	−10	12
13	Meyrin	11	+2	11
14	Stade Payerne	11	−7	11
15	Coffrane	10	−4	7
16	Vevey Sports	10	−13	4