United Nordic v Norrby IF prediction · Superettan

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

United Nordic 2–1 Norrby IF UNITED NORDIC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said United Nordic win~~45%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.456

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.646

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said United Nordic win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: United Nordic 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
1′KICK-OFF United Nordic v Norrby IF
12′We said United Nordic at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–23–57
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' United Nordic 0–1 Norrby IF
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' United Nordic win: 45% at kick-off, 20% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Norrby IF win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was United Nordic win 20%)
13′Norrby IF score on 12′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 20–23–57
14′United Nordic find the net on 13′. 1–1. 1–1 · 43–29–28
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' United Nordic 1–1 Norrby IF
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' United Nordic win: 45% at kick-off, 43% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' United Nordic win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Norrby IF win 28%)
45′HALF-TIME United Nordic 1–1 Norrby IF
45′🟨 YELLOW · 30' United Nordic
46′SECOND HALF United Nordic 1–1 Norrby IF
47′8 shots for United Nordic, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 35–40–25
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' United Nordic win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was United Nordic win 35%)
52′We said United Nordic at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–43–24
53′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 33–44–24
61′We said United Nordic at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–21
62′We said United Nordic at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 2–1 · 79–17–4
62′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–17–4
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' United Nordic 2–1 Norrby IF
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' United Nordic win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' United Nordic win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
63′We said United Nordic at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
64′christian aphrem scores for United Nordic on 61′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 80–17–3
64′🟨 YELLOW · 60' vidar swendsen · Norrby IF
67′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Jonathan gursac · United Nordic
71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Norrby IF · On: Joel hjalmar · Off: Julius·Johansson
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Norrby IF · On: Ibrahim Adewale · Off: Karl Jamie Bichis
74′We said United Nordic at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' United Nordic win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
78′🟨 YELLOW · 72' olle backlund · Norrby IF
81′We said United Nordic at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' United Nordic · On: Carl Lennstrom · Off: Alexander Lindgren Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' United Nordic · On: ninos issa · Off: christian aphrem Corrected
87′We said United Nordic at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' United Nordic win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Norrby IF · On: Finlay Neat · Off: charlie axede
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' United Nordic · On: liam andersson nesvik · Off: adi fisic
FTFULL TIME United Nordic 2–1 Norrby IF
FTUnited Nordic 2–1 Norrby IF · United Nordic win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

United Nordic are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: United Nordic 45%, draw 26%, Norrby IF 29%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on United Nordic v Norrby IFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

United Nordic win45%

Draw26%

Norrby IF win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueSodertalje Fotbollsarena

RefereeMax Persson

Line-ups

United Nordic

4-4-2

Norrby IF

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

United Nordic

Norrby IF

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Superettan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	United Nordic	26	−4	36
13	Norrby IF	26	−5	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

United Nordic

4-4-2

1 A. Melkemichel

16 N. Daneyl

12 S. Davis

77 J. Gursac

20 A. Harabi

21 E. Swedi

8 T. Gronborg

74 C. Aphrem

24 A. Lindgren

11 A. Fisic

10 E. Durmaz

Coach · Steven Younan

Substitutes

30 · W. Eskelinen

3 · M. Fazal

5 · L. Ygberg

6 · V. Silvander

9 · C. Lennstrom

18 · N. Issa

25 · L. Nesvik-Andersson

Norrby IF

4-4-2

1 S. Banozic

14 O. Backlund

3 J. Engvall

5 V. Svendsen

17 T. Spendler

11 K. Liimatainen

18 C. Axede

16 F. Gustafsson

10 J. Bichis

7 J. Johansson

28 H. Tilly

Coach · Tobias Linderoth

Substitutes

12 · T. Svensson

2 · D. Bendrik

4 · A. Nedzibovic

6 · J. Hjalmar

8 · M. Wester

13 · I. Adewale

15 · E. Ferreira

19 · F. Neat

Our number · united nordic winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market35%

Us45%

~~Market~~35%

We make United Nordic a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · United Nordic v Norrby IF~~1.55 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 36 v 27~~8 v 13

~~The market · United Nordic win~~35% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · United Nordic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
United Nordic win	45%	35%	+10
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Norrby IF win	29%	41%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	51%	64%	−13
Both teams to score	55%	65%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	76%	84%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	30%	44%	−14
United Nordic or draw	71%	59%	+12
United Nordic clean sheet	31%	–	–
Norrby IF clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.2 7.2 4.6 1 9.5 12.3 7.0 2.8 2 7.7 9.0 5.4 2.2 3 4.0 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+United Nordic down, Norrby IF across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,432 Superettan matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 212 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

United Nordic at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Norrby IF away: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for United Nordic, 1.19 for Norrby IF. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NOR 0–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 29 Aug

UNITED NORDIC

LWLDLL1–3 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–2

NORRBY IF

LLLLDW0–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	26	+36	58
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	+15	51
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	26	+11	45
4	Ostersunds FK	27	+9	45
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	+13	43
6	Oddevold	27	+4	39
7	Osters IF	27	0	39
8	United Nordic	26	−4	36
9	Sandviken	27	+5	35
10	Ljungskile SK	27	−1	32
11	Helsingborg	26	−11	30
12	IFK Varnamo	26	−13	29
13	Norrby IF	26	−5	27
14	IK brage	27	−9	26
15	Orebro SK	26	−12	25
16	GIF Sundsvall	26	−38	19