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Model 1.2

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Sandviken v Ostersunds FK

Sandviken
0–0Full time
Ostersunds FK

Superettan · SAT 17 OCT · Jernvallens Arena

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Sandviken 0–0 Ostersunds FK SANDVIKEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sandviken win46%
The market said30%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.833
The market’s Brier score0.788

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sandviken win at 46%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Sandviken was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–28
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Sandviken v Ostersunds FK
  4. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Ostersunds FK
  5. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sandviken win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Sandviken 0–0 Ostersunds FK
  7. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Nils Kasper Zidane·Harletun · Sandviken
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Sandviken 0–0 Ostersunds FK
  9. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sandviken win 35%)
  10. 50′We said Sandviken at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–42–24
  11. 52′We said Sandviken at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
  12. 55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–45–23
  13. 61′We said Sandviken at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
  14. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Wilhelm Nilsson · Sandviken
  15. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ostersunds FK · On: Molls Donald Ntchamda · Off: Curtis Edwards
  16. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ostersunds FK · On: Mario Palomino · Off: Abel William·Stensrud
  17. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Sandviken win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
  18. 69′We said Sandviken at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
  19. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sandviken · On: Christian Wagner · Off: Karl Bohm
  20. 75′We said Sandviken at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
  21. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Sandviken win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
  22. 80′We said Sandviken at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
  23. 84′We said Sandviken at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
  24. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sandviken · On: Nino Geiger · Off: Mohammed Sadat Abubakari
  25. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sandviken · On: Yabets yaya yaliso · Off: Daniel Bergman
  26. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ostersunds FK · On: Jonathan westerberg · Off: Yannick Adjoumani
  27. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Sandviken win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
  28. 91′We said Sandviken at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
  29. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Sandviken · On: Liam vabo · Off: Victor Backman
  30. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Sandviken · On: Nicholas Vainio · Off: Nils Kasper Zidane·Harletun
  31. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Mario Palomino · Ostersunds FK
  32. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Ostersunds FK · On: Luka Bozickovic · Off: Emil Özkan
  33. FTFULL TIME Sandviken 0–0 Ostersunds FK
  34. FTSandviken 0–0 Ostersunds FK · Sandviken win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sandviken are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sandviken 46%, draw 26%, Ostersunds FK 28%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Sandviken v Ostersunds FKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sandviken win46%
Draw26%
Ostersunds FK win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueJernvallens Arena

RefereeFredrik Alknas

Line-ups

Sandviken

4-2-3-1

Ostersunds FK

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sandviken

Ostersunds FK

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Superettan

Last match: 10 Oct · Superettan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Ostersunds FK26+944
9Sandviken26+534

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sandviken

4-2-3-1

1 H. Sveijer

26 L. Tagesson

23 K. Harletun

17 W. Nilsson

18 C. Rogers

22 D. Bergman

16 M. Abubakari

11 V. Backman

7 J. Arvidsson

12 A. Carleton

8 K. Bohm

Coach · Baran Coskun

Substitutes

30 · O. Lindell

3 · N. Geiger

6 · L. Vabo

9 · C. Wagner

13 · I. Lindholm

20 · N. Vainio

24 · Y. Yaliso Yaya

25 · I. Sangare

28 · A. Lund

Ostersunds FK

3-4-3

12 R. Forsell

19 D. Widgren

14 S. Anyanwu

3 H. Azzi

27 D. Miljanovic

17 C. Edwards

16 A. Begic

28 Y. Adjoumani

10 S. Marklund

9 A. Stensrud

8 E. Ozkan

Coach · Nemanja Miljanovic

Substitutes

1 · M. Uppenberg

2 · E. Caarls

4 · J. Westerberg

5 · A. A. Qasem

6 · J. Masllorens

15 · D. Molls

18 · M. Palomino

21 · L. Bozickovic

29 · E. Y. Worke

Our number · sandviken winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:52 · locked at kick-off
46% The market30%
Us46%
Market30%

We make Sandviken a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sandviken v Ostersunds FK1.54 – 1.16
Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 29 AugW2 D2 L2 · W2 D4 L0
Table places · points 34 v 449 v 4
The market · Sandviken win30% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 13:31
Our probability · Sandviken win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sandviken win46%30%+16
Draw26%28%−2
Ostersunds FK win28%42%−14
Over 2.5 goals51%49%+2
Both teams to score54%54%0
Over 1.5 goals76%72%+4
Over 3.5 goals29%28%+1
Sandviken or draw72%58%+14
Sandviken clean sheet31%––
Ostersunds FK clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%
0123450 7.3 7.3 4.6 1 9.8 12.3 6.9 2.7 2 7.9 9.1 5.3 2.1 3 4.1 4.7 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sandviken down, Ostersunds FK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.60
Over 2.54 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsOST 2–1 SAN · SAN 5–0 OST · OST 2–2 SAN · SAN 3–1 OST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 29 Aug

SANDVIKEN

DWLDWL1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 2–3

OSTERSUNDS FK

DWDWDD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1IFK Norrkoping26+3658
2Falkenbergs FF26+1448
3Varbergs BoIS FC26+1145
4Ostersunds FK26+944
5Landskrona BoIS26+1443
6Oddevold26+639
7Osters IF26−236
8United Nordic26−436
9Sandviken26+534
10Helsingborg26−1130
11Ljungskile SK26−329
12IFK Varnamo26−1329
13Norrby IF26−527
14IK brage26−726
15Orebro SK26−1225
16GIF Sundsvall26−3819

The competition's standings before kick-off.