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Ostersunds FK v Varbergs BoIS FC

Ostersunds FK

1–1Full time

Varbergs BoIS FC

Superettan · SAT 10 OCT · Jämtkraft Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Ostersunds FK 1–1 Varbergs BoIS FC OSTERSUNDS FK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ostersunds FK win~~37%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.803

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.804

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ostersunds FK win at 37%.
10′Little has changed for our model: Ostersunds FK 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–36
33′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Varbergs BoIS FC
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Ostersunds FK 0–1 Varbergs BoIS FC
45′Isak Vidjeskog scores for Varbergs BoIS FC on 42′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′Isak Vidjeskog scores for Varbergs BoIS FC on 41′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′⚽ GOAL · 42' Ostersunds FK 0–1 Varbergs BoIS FC · Isak Vidjeskog
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ostersunds FK win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Varbergs BoIS FC win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Ostersunds FK win 9%)
45′HALF-TIME Ostersunds FK 0–1 Varbergs BoIS FC
45′⚽ GOAL · 61' Ostersunds FK 0–1 Varbergs BoIS FC · Yannick Adjoumani (assist Sunday Anyanwu)
73′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Varbergs BoIS FC · On: Jonathan nilsson · Off: Wilhelm Arlig Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ostersunds FK · On: Jonathan westerberg · Off: Dennis Widgren Corrected
73′SECOND HALF Ostersunds FK 1–1 Varbergs BoIS FC
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Ostersunds FK 1–1 Varbergs BoIS FC · Yannick Adjoumani
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Varbergs BoIS FC · On: Shanyder Borgelin · Off: Dante Oliver Alfonsi Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Varbergs BoIS FC · On: Lucas Kåhed · Off: Albin Winbo Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Ostersunds FK · On: Molls Donald Ntchamda · Off: Emil Özkan Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ostersunds FK · On: Mario Palomino · Off: Jabir Abdihakim Ali Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Varbergs BoIS FC · On: Lucas·Sibelius · Off: Laorent Shabani Corrected
FTFULL TIME Ostersunds FK 1–1 Varbergs BoIS FC
FTOstersunds FK 1–1 Varbergs BoIS FC · Ostersunds FK win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ostersunds FK win37%

Draw27%

Varbergs BoIS FC win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Jämtkraft Arena

Referee · Karlsson Niclas

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ostersunds FK

3-4-2-1

12 R. Forsell

19 D. Widgren

14 S. Anyanwu

3 H. Azzi

27 D. Miljanovic

17 C. Edwards

16 A. Begic

28 Y. Adjoumani

10 S. Marklund

8 E. Ozkan

22 J. Ali

Coach · Nemanja Miljanovic

Substitutes

1 · M. Uppenberg

4 · J. Westerberg

5 · A. A. Qasem

6 · J. Masllorens

7 · G. Odenlind

9 · A. Stensrud

15 · D. Molls

18 · M. Palomino

21 · L. Bozickovic

Varbergs BoIS FC

4-3-3

29 D. Strindholm

22 N. Dahlstrom

2 G. Broman

17 E. Tellgren

5 E. Hellman

21 I. Vidjeskog

15 N. Johansson

8 A. Winbo

7 W. Arlig

14 O. Alfonsi

9 L. Shabani

Coach · Victor Salwen

Substitutes

1 · O. Ekman

3 · H. Zackrisson

12 · L. Kahed

18 · J. Lindner

19 · J. Nilsson

20 · O. Werner

23 · L. Sibelius

24 · O. Bryneus

49 · S. Borgelin

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ostersunds FK

3-4-2-1

12 R. Forsell

19 D. Widgren

14 S. Anyanwu

3 H. Azzi

27 D. Miljanovic

17 C. Edwards

16 A. Begic

28 Y. Adjoumani

10 S. Marklund

8 E. Ozkan

22 J. Ali

Coach · Nemanja Miljanovic

Substitutes

1 · M. Uppenberg

4 · J. Westerberg

5 · A. A. Qasem

6 · J. Masllorens

7 · G. Odenlind

9 · A. Stensrud

15 · D. Molls

18 · M. Palomino

21 · L. Bozickovic

Varbergs BoIS FC

4-3-3

29 D. Strindholm

22 N. Dahlstrom

2 G. Broman

17 E. Tellgren

5 E. Hellman

21 I. Vidjeskog

15 N. Johansson

8 A. Winbo

7 W. Arlig

14 O. Alfonsi

9 L. Shabani

Coach · Victor Salwen

Substitutes

1 · O. Ekman

3 · H. Zackrisson

12 · L. Kahed

18 · J. Lindner

19 · J. Nilsson

20 · O. Werner

23 · L. Sibelius

24 · O. Bryneus

49 · S. Borgelin

Our number · ostersunds fk winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

37% The market46%

Us37%

~~Market~~46%

We make Ostersunds FK a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ostersunds fk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ostersunds FK win	37%	46%	−9
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Varbergs BoIS FC win	36%	27%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	50%	47%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	52%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	71%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	27%	+1
Ostersunds FK or draw	64%	73%	−10
Ostersunds FK clean sheet	27%	–	–
Varbergs BoIS FC clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.5 8.8 6.1 2.7 1 8.9 12.7 8.1 3.6 2 6.3 8.2 5.4 2.4 3 2.8 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ostersunds FK down, Varbergs BoIS FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,420 Superettan matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ostersunds FK at home: 1.00 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Ostersunds FK, 1.32 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:39. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~VAR 1–2 OST · VAR 1–1 OST · OST 0–1 VAR · OST 2–1 VAR

Form · last six in Superettan

OSTERSUNDS FK

DDWDWD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

VARBERGS BOIS FC

LWDLWW1–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	25	+32	55
2	Falkenbergs FF	25	+13	45
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	25	+11	44
4	Ostersunds FK	25	+9	43
5	Landskrona BoIS	25	+13	40
6	Oddevold	25	+4	36
7	Osters IF	25	0	36
8	United Nordic	25	−2	36
9	Sandviken	25	+6	34
10	Helsingborg	25	−9	30
11	IFK Varnamo	25	−12	29
12	Ljungskile SK	25	−3	28
13	Norrby IF	25	−7	24
14	Orebro SK	25	−12	24
15	IK brage	25	−9	23
16	GIF Sundsvall	25	−34	19