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Ostersunds FK v United Nordic

Ostersunds FK

4–1Full time

United Nordic

Superettan · SAT 24 OCT · Jämtkraft Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Ostersunds FK 4–1 United Nordic OSTERSUNDS FK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ostersunds FK win~~43%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.496

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.181

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ostersunds FK win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ostersunds FK 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Ostersunds FK v United Nordic
19′A goal for Ostersunds FK on 18′. 0–0 · 40–31–29
19′We said Ostersunds FK at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–11
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Ostersunds FK 1–0 United Nordic
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Ostersunds FK win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
20′Ostersunds FK score on 19′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Ostersunds FK win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
45′United Nordic level it on 45′ through adi fisic. 1–1. 1–1 · 34–40–26
45′HALF-TIME Ostersunds FK 1–1 United Nordic
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' United Nordic
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ostersunds FK win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Ostersunds FK win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 40%)
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Ostersunds FK 1–1 United Nordic
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Ostersunds FK win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Ostersunds FK win 74%)
50′SECOND HALF Ostersunds FK 1–1 United Nordic
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Ostersunds FK 1–1 United Nordic · adi fisic
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Ostersunds FK win: 43% at kick-off, 32% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Ostersunds FK win 74%)
53′We said Ostersunds FK at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–45–24
55′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Hugo Azzi · Ostersunds FK
57′We said Ostersunds FK at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–48–23
66′We said Ostersunds FK at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 2–1 · 81–17–3
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Ostersunds FK 2–1 United Nordic
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Ostersunds FK win: 43% at kick-off, 81% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Ostersunds FK win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 56%)
67′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 81–16–3
69′Simon Marklund scores for Ostersunds FK on 66′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–16–2
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ostersunds FK · On: Jabir Abdihakim Ali · Off: Mario Palomino
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ostersunds FK · On: Molls Donald Ntchamda · Off: Luka Bozickovic
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Ostersunds FK win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
74′We said Ostersunds FK at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
74′We said Ostersunds FK at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–1–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Ostersunds FK 3–1 United Nordic
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Ostersunds FK win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
75′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
76′73′: Jabir Abdihakim Ali on the scoresheet for Ostersunds FK, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
77′We said Ostersunds FK at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
77′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
77′Ostersunds FK ahead on 76′ through Jonathan westerberg. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Ostersunds FK 4–1 United Nordic
78′Ostersunds FK ahead on 75′ through Jonathan westerberg. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' United Nordic · On: Ninos Issa · Off: christian aphrem
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' United Nordic · On: Liam Augustinius Nesvik-Andersson · Off: Alexander Lindgren
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ostersunds FK · On: José Masllorens · Off: A. Begić
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ostersunds FK · On: Abel William·Stensrud · Off: Curtis Edwards
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' United Nordic · On: Carl Lennstrom · Off: adi fisic
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' United Nordic · On: Lexus Ygberg · Off: Sammi Davis
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' United Nordic · On: Valter Silvander · Off: Elias Durmaz
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Ostersunds FK · On: Abodi Qasem · Off: Hugo Azzi
FTFULL TIME Ostersunds FK 4–1 United Nordic
FTOstersunds FK 4–1 United Nordic · Ostersunds FK win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ostersunds FK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ostersunds FK 43%, draw 27%, United Nordic 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Ostersunds FK v United NordicBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ostersunds FK win43%

Draw27%

United Nordic win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueJämtkraft Arena

RefereePer Martin Melin

Line-ups

Ostersunds FK

3-4-3

United Nordic

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ostersunds FK

United Nordic

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Superettan

Last match: 18 Oct · Superettan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ostersunds FK	27	+9	45
8	United Nordic	27	−3	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ostersunds FK

3-4-3

12 R. Forsell

19 D. Widgren

14 S. Anyanwu

3 H. Azzi

4 J. Westerberg

17 C. Edwards

16 A. Begić

28 Y. Adjoumani

10 S. Marklund

18 M. Palomino

21 L. Bozickovic

Coach · N. Miljanovic

Substitutes

22 · J. Ali

6 · Masllorens

27 · D. Miljanovic

15 · D. Molls

5 · A. Qasem

9 · A. Stensrud

1 · M. Uppenberg

United Nordic

4-1-4-1

1 A. Melkemichel

16 N. Daneyl

77 J. Gürsac

12 S. Davis

20 A. Harabi

10 E. Durmaz

74 C. Aphrem

8 T. Grönborg

21 E. Swedi

7 A. Lindgren

11 A. Fisic

Coach · S. Younan

Substitutes

30 · Yaqoob Ghazala Fahad Sinan

18 · Ninos Issa

24 · T. Johansson

9 · Carl Lennstrom

25 · Liam Augustinius Nesvik-Andersson

6 · Valter Silvander

5 · Lexus Ygberg

Our number · ostersunds fk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:17 · locked at kick-off

43% The market66%

Us43%

~~Market~~66%

We make Ostersunds FK a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 23 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ostersunds FK v United Nordic~~1.44 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 45 v 39~~4 v 8

~~The market · Ostersunds FK win~~66% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ostersunds FK win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ostersunds FK win	43%	66%	−23
Draw	27%	21%	+6
United Nordic win	30%	13%	+17
Over 2.5 goals	49%	55%	−6
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	77%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	35%	−8
Ostersunds FK or draw	70%	87%	−17
Ostersunds FK clean sheet	31%	–	–
United Nordic clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.0 8.1 5.1 2.0 1 10.0 12.8 7.2 2.9 2 7.5 8.8 5.2 2.0 3 3.6 4.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ostersunds FK down, United Nordic across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,437 Superettan matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ostersunds FK at home: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). United Nordic away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Ostersunds FK, 1.18 for United Nordic. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–1 OST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 4 Sept

OSTERSUNDS FK

WDWDDD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

UNITED NORDIC

WLDLLW2–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	27	+36	59
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	+15	51
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	+11	46
4	Ostersunds FK	27	+9	45
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	+13	43
6	Oddevold	28	+11	42
7	Osters IF	27	0	39
8	United Nordic	27	−3	39
9	Sandviken	27	+5	35
10	Ljungskile SK	27	−1	32
11	IFK Varnamo	27	−12	32
12	Helsingborg	27	−11	31
13	Norrby IF	27	−6	27
14	IK brage	27	−9	26
15	Orebro SK	27	−12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	28	−46	19