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Osters IF v Oddevold

Osters IF
3–1Full time
Oddevold

Superettan · SAT 17 OCT · Spiris Arena

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42
Osters IF 3–1 Oddevold OSTERS IF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Osters IF win46%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.445
The market’s Brier score0.705

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Osters IF win at 46%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Osters IF 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Osters IF v Oddevold
  4. 22′We said Osters IF at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
  5. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Osters IF 1–0 Oddevold
  6. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Osters IF win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
  7. 23′A goal for Osters IF on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–9
  9. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Osters IF 1–1 Oddevold
  10. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Osters IF win: 46% at kick-off, 38% now
  11. 44′Oddevold score on 43′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 37–37–26
  12. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Vincent Sundberg · Oddevold
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Osters IF 1–1 Oddevold
  14. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Osters IF win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  15. 47′42′: Leonardo Farah Shahin on the scoresheet for Oddevold, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 37–38–26
  16. 47′HALF-TIME Osters IF 1–1 Oddevold
  17. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Osters IF win 35%)
  18. 51′We said Osters IF at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–41–24
  19. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Oddevold · On: Carl Freddie Lantz · Off: Jesper Thomas Valter Merbom-Adolfsson
  20. 62′We said Osters IF at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–21
  21. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Kalipha Jawla · Osters IF
  22. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Oddevold
  23. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Oddevold
  24. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Osters IF win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
  25. 69′We said Osters IF at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–1 · 82–16–2
  26. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Osters IF 2–1 Oddevold
  27. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Osters IF win: 46% at kick-off, 82% now
  28. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Osters IF win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
  29. 70′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–15–2
  30. 72′Osters IF find the net on 70′. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–15–2
  31. 74′Osters IF ahead on 71′ through Keyano marrah. 2–1. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  32. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Oddevold · On: Aulon bitiqi · Off: olle olblad kjellman
  33. 75′We said Osters IF at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
  34. 75′We said Osters IF at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  35. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Osters IF 3–1 Oddevold
  36. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Osters IF win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
  37. 76′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  38. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Osters IF · On: Hannes·Bladh Pijaca · Off: Matias Tamminen
  39. 79′Keyano marrah scores for Osters IF on 76′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  40. 82′We said Osters IF at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  41. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Oddevold · On: Daniel Krezic · Off: awaka djoro
  42. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Oddevold · On: Rudi Vikström · Off: Vincent Sundberg
  43. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Osters IF · On: Kingsley gyamfi · Off: Raymond Adjei
  44. FTFULL TIME Osters IF 3–1 Oddevold
  45. FTOsters IF 3–1 Oddevold · Osters IF win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Osters IF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Osters IF 46%, draw 25%, Oddevold 29%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Osters IF v OddevoldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Osters IF win46%
Draw25%
Oddevold win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueSpiris Arena

RefereePer Martin Melin

Line-ups

Osters IF

4-3-3

Oddevold

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Osters IF

Oddevold

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Superettan

Last match: 10 Oct · Superettan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Oddevold26+639
7Osters IF26−236

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Osters IF

4-3-3

1 C. Lundahl

16 R. Adjei

5 M. Adolfsson

4 S. Starke

14 D. Olsson

6 N. Soderberg

29 M. Due Grandt

18 K. Marrah

10 O. Uddenas

9 K. Jawla

19 M. Tamminen

Coach · Daniel Friberg

Substitutes

33 · M. Hartmann

3 · K. Gyamfi

15 · T. Varmanen

21 · V. Lind

17 · H. Bladh Pijaca

8 · D. Ask

34 · W. I. Thellsson C.

Oddevold

4-3-3

12 M. Saetra

7 V. Sundberg

6 J. Merbom Adolfsoon

21 O. Thoreson

5 E. Mehmed

16 A. Djoro

14 G. Sandberg

15 E. Forsberg

8 O. Iglicar Berntsson

10 L. Shahin

17 O. Kjellman Olblad

Coach · Rikard Nilsson

Substitutes

33 · F. Jarlesand

9 · R. Vikstrom

11 · D. Krezic

13 · E. Gono

18 · G. Forssell

20 · A. Engelbrektsson

23 · A. Bitiqi

25 · J. Nikko

26 · F. Lantz

Our number · osters if winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:59 · locked at kick-off
46% The market32%
Us46%
Market32%

We make Osters IF a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Osters IF v Oddevold1.61 – 1.24
Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 30 AugW1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 36 v 397 v 6
The market · Osters IF win32% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 15:12
Our probability · Osters IF win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. The market has gone from 33% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Osters IF win46%32%+14
Draw25%25%0
Oddevold win29%43%−14
Over 2.5 goals54%60%−6
Both teams to score57%62%−5
Over 1.5 goals78%80%−2
Over 3.5 goals32%39%−7
Osters IF or draw71%57%+14
Osters IF clean sheet29%––
Oddevold clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%
0123450 6.4 6.8 4.5 1 8.9 11.9 7.1 2.9 2 7.5 9.1 5.6 2.3 3 4.0 4.9 3.0 4 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Osters IF down, Oddevold across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.67
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsODD 1–2 OST · ODD 1–1 OST · OST 3–0 ODD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 30 Aug

OSTERS IF

DLLWLL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–2

ODDEVOLD

LWWDLW1–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1IFK Norrkoping26+3658
2Falkenbergs FF26+1448
3Varbergs BoIS FC26+1145
4Ostersunds FK26+944
5Landskrona BoIS26+1443
6Oddevold26+639
7Osters IF26−236
8United Nordic26−436
9Sandviken26+534
10Helsingborg26−1130
11Ljungskile SK26−329
12IFK Varnamo26−1329
13Norrby IF26−527
14IK brage26−726
15Orebro SK26−1225
16GIF Sundsvall26−3819

The competition's standings before kick-off.