Orebro SK v Ljungskile SK prediction · Superettan

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Orebro SK 1–1 Ljungskile SK OREBRO SK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Orebro SK win~~38%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.812

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.840

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orebro SK win at 38%.
2′Much as we predicted: Orebro SK was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
2′KICK-OFF Orebro SK v Ljungskile SK
3′Much as we predicted: Orebro SK was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
45′HALF-TIME Orebro SK 0–0 Ljungskile SK
45′SECOND HALF Orebro SK 0–0 Ljungskile SK
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ljungskile SK · On: elton hedstrom · Off: shakur omar Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Orebro SK · On: Manasse Kusu · Off: Karl Holmberg Corrected
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Orebro SK 1–0 Ljungskile SK
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Orebro SK · On: Jacob Ortmark · Off: Chovanie Amatkarijo Corrected
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Orebro SK 1–0 Ljungskile SK
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Ljungskile SK
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ljungskile SK · On: Filip Ornblom · Off: Gustav hedin Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ljungskile SK · On: samuel hogblom · Off: Samuel Adrian Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ljungskile SK · On: alex rasheed · Off: Lukas corner Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ljungskile SK · On: David Frisk · Off: mehmet uzel Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Orebro SK · On: hampus soderstrom · Off: Samuel Wikman Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Orebro SK · On: Fabian Wahlstrom · Off: Rasmus Wiedesheim-Paul Corrected
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Orebro SK 1–1 Ljungskile SK · Jacob Ortmark
94′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Orebro SK · On: Christopher Redenstrand · Off: Antonio Yakoub Corrected
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Orebro SK 1–1 Ljungskile SK · Jacob Ortmark
FTFULL TIME Orebro SK 1–1 Ljungskile SK
FTOrebro SK 1–1 Ljungskile SK · Orebro SK win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Orebro SK win38%

Draw26%

Ljungskile SK win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueBehrn Arena

RefereePer Martin Melin

Line-ups

Orebro SK

3-5-2

Ljungskile SK

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Orebro SK

Ljungskile SK

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Ljungskile SK	25	−3	28
14	Orebro SK	25	−12	24

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Orebro SK

3-5-2

75 J. Ojrzynski

19 J. Haliti

3 V. Sandberg

32 J. Stenberg

25 C. Amatkarijo

7 S. Wikman

23 E. Rakip

9 A. Yakoub

99 A. Yasin

17 K. Holmberg

10 R. Wiedesheim-Paul

Coach · Patrik Haginge

Substitutes

30 · B. Runheim

5 · J. Ortmark

6 · E. Ibrahimbegovic

8 · M. Kusu

11 · C. Redenstrand

12 · D. Salihovic

15 · L. Astvald

16 · H. Soderstrom

21 · F. Wahlstrom

Ljungskile SK

3-4-3

1 L. Eriksson

3 G. Johanstrommer Hedin

60 G. Mensah

69 I. Maric

16 E. Reljanovic

14 D. Lagerlof

58 S. Adrian

23 M. Uzel

27 A. Boren

99 L. Lindholm Corner

11 S. Omar

Coach · Tor-Arne Fredheim

Substitutes

20 · C. Hogg

5 · F. Ornblom

9 · A. Rasheed

12 · S. Hogblom

15 · D. Frisk

17 · L. Jagdell

18 · H. Borstam

19 · D. E. Hedstrom J.

71 · D. Ljung

Our number · orebro sk winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

38% The market45%

Us38%

~~Market~~45%

We make Orebro SK a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · orebro sk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orebro SK win	38%	45%	−7
Draw	26%	26%	+1
Ljungskile SK win	36%	30%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	52%	58%	−6
Both teams to score	56%	60%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	37%	−7
Orebro SK or draw	64%	70%	−6
Orebro SK clean sheet	26%	–	–
Ljungskile SK clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.0 8.2 5.8 2.6 1 8.6 12.5 8.1 3.6 2 6.3 8.4 5.6 2.5 3 2.9 3.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orebro SK down, Ljungskile SK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,424 Superettan matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 204 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orebro SK at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ljungskile SK away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Orebro SK, 1.35 for Ljungskile SK. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 11:38. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LJU 3–2 ORE

Form · last six in Superettan

OREBRO SK

WDLWDL2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–4

LJUNGSKILE SK

DLDWLL0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	25	+32	55
2	Falkenbergs FF	25	+13	45
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	26	+11	45
4	Ostersunds FK	26	+9	44
5	Landskrona BoIS	26	+14	43
6	Oddevold	26	+6	39
7	Osters IF	26	−2	36
8	United Nordic	26	−4	36
9	Sandviken	26	+5	34
10	Helsingborg	25	−9	30
11	IFK Varnamo	25	−12	29
12	Ljungskile SK	25	−3	28
13	Norrby IF	26	−5	27
14	Orebro SK	25	−12	24
15	IK brage	25	−9	23
16	GIF Sundsvall	25	−34	19