Orebro SK v Falkenbergs FF prediction · Superettan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Orebro SKDrawFalkenbergs FF

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:05

Before kick-off · Match result · Falkenbergs FF 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Falkenbergs FF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Orebro SK 31%, draw 25%, Falkenbergs FF 45%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Orebro SK v Falkenbergs FFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Orebro SK win31%

Draw25%

Falkenbergs FF win45%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 18:05

RoundMatchday 28

VenueBehrn Arena

RefereeFarouk Nehdi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orebro SK

Falkenbergs FF

6Days since last match9

Last match: 20 Oct · Superettan

Last match: 17 Oct · Superettan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	+15	51
15	Orebro SK	27	−12	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · falkenbergs ff winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market36%

Us45%

~~Market~~36%

We make Falkenbergs FF a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Orebro SK v Falkenbergs FF~~1.36 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 26 v 51~~15 v 2

~~The market · Falkenbergs FF win~~36% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Falkenbergs FF win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orebro SK win	31%	38%	−7
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Falkenbergs FF win	45%	36%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	58%	54%	+4
Both teams to score	60%	58%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	76%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	36%	33%	+3
Orebro SK or draw	55%	64%	−9
Orebro SK clean sheet	19%	–	–
Falkenbergs FF clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.4 7.6 6.7 3.8 1 6.1 11.3 9.0 5.1 2.2 2 4.5 7.3 6.1 3.4 3 2.0 3.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orebro SK down, Falkenbergs FF across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,440 Superettan matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 220 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orebro SK at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Falkenbergs FF away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Orebro SK, 1.68 for Falkenbergs FF. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FAL 1–1 ORE · ORE 4–1 FAL · FAL 2–1 ORE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 5 Sept

OREBRO SK

LWDLDD0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 2–2

FALKENBERGS FF

LWWDWW1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 4–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	27	+36	59
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	+15	51
3	Ostersunds FK	28	+12	48
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	+11	46
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	+13	43
6	Oddevold	28	+11	42
7	Osters IF	28	+1	42
8	United Nordic	28	−6	39
9	Sandviken	28	+6	38
10	Ljungskile SK	27	−1	32
11	IFK Varnamo	28	−13	32
12	Helsingborg	27	−11	31
13	Norrby IF	27	−6	27
14	IK brage	28	−10	26
15	Orebro SK	27	−12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	28	−46	19