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Oddevold v United Nordic

Oddevold

2–0Full time

United Nordic

Superettan · SAT 10 OCT · Rimnersvallen

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Oddevold 2–0 United Nordic ODDEVOLD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oddevold win~~46%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.439

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.319

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oddevold win at 46%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Oddevold 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–29
2′KICK-OFF Oddevold v United Nordic
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Oddevold 1–0 United Nordic
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Oddevold 1–0 United Nordic
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Oddevold 2–0 United Nordic · Gabriel Sandberg
35′⚽ GOAL · 30' Oddevold 2–0 United Nordic · Leonardo Farah Shahin
44′Oddevold ahead on 30′ through Leonardo Farah Shahin. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Oddevold win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Oddevold win: 46% at kick-off, 43% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Oddevold win: 46% at kick-off, 43% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Oddevold win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Oddevold · On: Oliver·Thoreson · Off: Oskar Nils Cotton Corrected
45′HALF-TIME Oddevold 2–0 United Nordic
45′🟨 YELLOW · 49' United Nordic
45′⚽ GOAL · 23' Oddevold 2–0 United Nordic · Gabriel Sandberg (assist Jesper Thomas Valter Merbom-Adolfsson)
45′⚽ GOAL · 30' Oddevold 2–0 United Nordic · Leonardo Farah Shahin
45′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Alexander Lindgren · United Nordic
46′SECOND HALF Oddevold 2–0 United Nordic
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Oddevold win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Oddevold win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Oddevold win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Oddevold · On: Vincent Sundberg · Off: Hugo Engstrom Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 46' United Nordic · On: ninos issa · Off: Liiban Abdirahman Abadid Corrected
64′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Gabriel Sandberg · Oddevold
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Oddevold · On: Aulon bitiqi · Off: Gustav Forssell Corrected
64′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Gabriel Aphrem · United Nordic
76′🟥 RED CARD · 71' Gabriel Aphrem · United Nordic
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' United Nordic · On: Philip Halef · Off: christian aphrem Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' United Nordic · On: liam andersson nesvik · Off: Alexander Lindgren Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Oddevold · On: Daniel Krezic · Off: Morten Saetra Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Oddevold · On: olle olblad kjellman · Off: Oscar Iglicar Berntsson Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Oddevold · On: awaka djoro · Off: Rudi Vikström Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' United Nordic · On: Gabriel alan · Off: Nhome daneyl Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' United Nordic · On: lexus ygberg · Off: adi fisic Corrected
FTFULL TIME Oddevold 2–0 United Nordic
FTOddevold 2–0 United Nordic · Oddevold win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Oddevold win46%

Draw25%

United Nordic win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · Rimnersvallen

Referee · Fredrik Alknas

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Oddevold

3-4-3

12 M. Saetra

6 J. Merbom Adolfsoon

22 O. Cotton

5 E. Mehmed

19 H. Engstrom

14 G. Sandberg

15 E. Forsberg

8 O. Iglicar Berntsson

18 G. Forssell

10 L. Shahin

9 R. Vikstrom

Coach · Rikard Nilsson

Substitutes

33 · F. Jarlesand

7 · V. Sundberg

11 · D. Krezic

16 · A. Djoro

17 · O. Kjellman Olblad

21 · O. Thoreson

23 · A. Bitiqi

25 · J. Nikko

26 · F. Lantz

United Nordic

3-4-3

1 A. Melkemichel

12 S. Davis

77 J. Gursac

4 L. Abadid

16 N. Daneyl

21 E. Swedi

74 C. Aphrem

20 A. Harabi

6 G. Aphrem

11 A. Fisic

8 A. Lindgren

Coach · Steven Younan

Substitutes

30 · S. Y. Ghazala F.

3 · G. Alan

5 · P. Halef

7 · L. Ygberg

18 · N. Issa

25 · L. Nesvik-Andersson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Oddevold

3-4-3

12 M. Saetra

6 J. Merbom Adolfsoon

22 O. Cotton

5 E. Mehmed

19 H. Engstrom

14 G. Sandberg

15 E. Forsberg

8 O. Iglicar Berntsson

18 G. Forssell

10 L. Shahin

9 R. Vikstrom

Coach · Rikard Nilsson

Substitutes

33 · F. Jarlesand

7 · V. Sundberg

11 · D. Krezic

16 · A. Djoro

17 · O. Kjellman Olblad

21 · O. Thoreson

23 · A. Bitiqi

25 · J. Nikko

26 · F. Lantz

United Nordic

3-4-3

1 A. Melkemichel

12 S. Davis

77 J. Gursac

4 L. Abadid

16 N. Daneyl

21 E. Swedi

74 C. Aphrem

20 A. Harabi

6 G. Aphrem

11 A. Fisic

8 A. Lindgren

Coach · Steven Younan

Substitutes

30 · S. Y. Ghazala F.

3 · G. Alan

5 · P. Halef

7 · L. Ygberg

18 · N. Issa

25 · L. Nesvik-Andersson

Our number · oddevold winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

46% The market54%

Us46%

~~Market~~54%

We make Oddevold a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · oddevold win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 54% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oddevold win	46%	54%	−8
Draw	25%	23%	+2
United Nordic win	29%	23%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	55%	61%	−6
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	82%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	41%	−8
Oddevold or draw	71%	77%	−6
Oddevold clean sheet	29%	–	–
United Nordic clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.1 6.6 4.4 1 8.7 11.7 7.1 3.0 2 7.4 9.2 5.7 2.4 3 4.1 5.0 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oddevold down, United Nordic across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,420 Superettan matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oddevold at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). United Nordic away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Oddevold, 1.26 for United Nordic. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~UNI 3–3 ODD

Form · last six in Superettan

ODDEVOLD

WLWWDL3–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

UNITED NORDIC

WLWLDL2–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	25	+32	55
2	Falkenbergs FF	25	+13	45
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	25	+11	44
4	Ostersunds FK	25	+9	43
5	Landskrona BoIS	25	+13	40
6	Oddevold	25	+4	36
7	Osters IF	25	0	36
8	United Nordic	25	−2	36
9	Sandviken	25	+6	34
10	Helsingborg	25	−9	30
11	IFK Varnamo	25	−12	29
12	Ljungskile SK	25	−3	28
13	Norrby IF	25	−7	24
14	Orebro SK	25	−12	24
15	IK brage	25	−9	23
16	GIF Sundsvall	25	−34	19