Oddevold v GIF Sundsvall prediction · Superettan

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Oddevold 7–0 GIF Sundsvall ODDEVOLD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oddevold win~~59%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.255

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.141

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oddevold win at 59%.
0′KICK-OFF Oddevold v GIF Sundsvall
3′Little has changed for our model: Oddevold 59% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–24–18
7′We said Oddevold at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Oddevold 1–0 GIF Sundsvall
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Oddevold win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
8′Oddevold find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
8′Oddevold find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 82–13–5
45′SECOND HALF Oddevold 1–0 GIF Sundsvall
46′HALF-TIME Oddevold 1–0 GIF Sundsvall
55′We said Oddevold at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Oddevold 2–0 GIF Sundsvall
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Oddevold win: 59% at kick-off, 97% now
58′A goal for Oddevold on 56′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
58′SUBSTITUTION · 52' GIF Sundsvall · On: Amaro Bahtijar · Off: Nils·Eriksson
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' GIF Sundsvall · On: Marc Manchón · Off: Eron Gojani
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' GIF Sundsvall · On: kawa sulaiman · Off: Ludvig Nåvik
67′We said Oddevold at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Oddevold win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Oddevold 3–0 GIF Sundsvall
69′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Oddevold 4–0 GIF Sundsvall
76′Oddevold ahead on 69′ through Aulon bitiqi. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
76′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Oddevold · On: Aulon bitiqi · Off: Rudi Vikström
76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' GIF Sundsvall
77′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Oddevold 5–0 GIF Sundsvall
79′A goal for Oddevold on 77′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Oddevold · On: Timi Destiny · Off: Oliver·Thoreson
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Oddevold · On: Carl Freddie Lantz · Off: Elias forsberg
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' GIF Sundsvall · On: Emil Bengtsson · Off: Alper Demirol
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' GIF Sundsvall
89′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Oddevold 6–0 GIF Sundsvall
90′SUBSTITUTION · 78' GIF Sundsvall · On: Jeremiah Bjornler · Off: Taiki Kagayama
90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Oddevold · On: Daniel Krezic · Off: Oscar Iglicar Berntsson
90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Oddevold · On: Mattias bahno · Off: Gustav Forssell
92′Oddevold score on 90′ to make it 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
92′7 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 7–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Oddevold 7–0 GIF Sundsvall
93′7–0 at the end. Our 59% on Oddevold comes in. 7–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Oddevold 7–0 GIF Sundsvall
FTOddevold 7–0 GIF Sundsvall · Oddevold win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oddevold are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oddevold 59%, draw 23%, GIF Sundsvall 18%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Oddevold v GIF SundsvallBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Oddevold win59%

Draw23%

GIF Sundsvall win18%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueRimnersvallen

RefereeMax Persson

Line-ups

Oddevold

3-4-3

GIF Sundsvall

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oddevold

GIF Sundsvall

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Superettan

Last match: 18 Oct · Superettan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Oddevold	27	+4	39
16	GIF Sundsvall	27	−39	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Oddevold

3-4-3

33 F. Järlesand

6 J. Merbom-Adolfsson

21 O. Thoreson

5 E. Mehmed

7 V. Sundberg

16 D. Awaka

15 E. Forsberg

8 O. Iglicar Berntsson

18 G. Forssell

10 L. Farah Shahin

9 R. Vikström

Coach · R. Nilsson

Substitutes

25 · J. Nikko

24 · M. Bahno

23 · A. Bitiqi

20 · A. Engelbrektsson

13 · E. Gono

29 · N. Hermansson

11 · D. Krezic

26 · F. Lantz

27 · Timi Destiny

GIF Sundsvall

4-4-2

1 J. Olsson

18 L. Forsberg

4 J. Hedenquist

17 N. Eriksson

5 A. Atlee Manneh

16 E. Hansson

14 A. Demirol

21 L. Nåvik

19 E. Gojani

9 T. Kagayama

8 C. Björk

Coach · Per Joar Hansen

Substitutes

6 · Marc Manchón

34 · W. Bjuhr

20 · Jeremiah Björnler

2 · E. Bengtsson

27 · A. Bahtijar

25 · Charles Baah

29 · K. Sulaiman

Our number · oddevold winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

59% The market70%

Us59%

~~Market~~70%

We make Oddevold a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oddevold v GIF Sundsvall~~1.85 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 39 v 19~~6 v 16

~~The market · Oddevold win~~70% · ours 59%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Oddevold win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oddevold win	59%	70%	−11
Draw	23%	19%	+4
GIF Sundsvall win	18%	12%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	52%	62%	−10
Both teams to score	50%	52%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	30%	41%	−11
Oddevold or draw	82%	88%	−6
Oddevold clean sheet	41%	–	–
GIF Sundsvall clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.3%

0123450 7.0 5.4 2.7 1 11.3 11.1 4.8 2 10.8 9.7 4.4 3 6.7 6.0 2.7 4 3.1 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oddevold down, GIF Sundsvall across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,436 Superettan matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oddevold at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). GIF Sundsvall away: 0.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Oddevold, 0.90 for GIF Sundsvall. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~GIF 1–3 ODD · GIF 0–1 ODD · ODD 1–2 GIF · GIF 3–0 ODD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 5 Sept

ODDEVOLD

WWDLWL2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–3

GIF SUNDSVALL

WLLWLL1–0 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	27	+36	59
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	+15	51
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	+11	46
4	Ostersunds FK	27	+9	45
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	+13	43
6	Oddevold	27	+4	39
7	Osters IF	27	0	39
8	United Nordic	27	−3	39
9	Sandviken	27	+5	35
10	Ljungskile SK	27	−1	32
11	IFK Varnamo	27	−12	32
12	Helsingborg	27	−11	31
13	Norrby IF	27	−6	27
14	IK brage	27	−9	26
15	Orebro SK	27	−12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	27	−39	19