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Norrby IF v Osters IF

Norrby IF

2–0Full time

Osters IF

Superettan · SAT 10 OCT · Borås Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Norrby IF 2–0 Osters IF OSTERS IF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Osters IF win~~40%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.665

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.427

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Osters IF win at 40%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Osters IF 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
42′A goal for Norrby IF on 38′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–2
45′SECOND HALF Norrby IF 2–0 Osters IF
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Osters IF win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Norrby IF win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Osters IF win 2%)
46′🟨 YELLOW · 9' vidar swendsen · Norrby IF
46′⚽ GOAL · 25' Norrby IF 2–0 Osters IF · Hugo Tilly
46′⚽ GOAL · 37' Norrby IF 2–0 Osters IF
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Osters IF win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Norrby IF win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Osters IF win 2%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Osters IF win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Norrby IF win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Osters IF win 2%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Osters IF win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Norrby IF win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Osters IF win 2%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Osters IF win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Norrby IF win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Osters IF win 2%)
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Osters IF · On: Marinus Due Grandt · Off: Hannes·Bladh Pijaca Corrected
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Osters IF win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Norrby IF win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Osters IF win 2%)
58′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Filip Olsson · Osters IF
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Osters IF · On: william thellsson · Off: Daniel Ask Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Osters IF · On: Mattis Adolfsson · Off: Kingsley gyamfi Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Osters IF · On: Keyano marrah · Off: Filip Olsson Corrected
72′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Osters IF
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Osters IF · On: Raymond Adjei · Off: Tatu Varmanen Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Norrby IF · On: Ibrahim Adewale · Off: Karl Jamie Bichis Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Norrby IF · On: Azeez Temitope Yusuf · Off: Hugo Tilly Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Norrby IF · On: Joel hjalmar · Off: kevin liimatainen Corrected
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Norrby IF
FTFULL TIME Norrby IF 2–0 Osters IF
FTNorrby IF 2–0 Osters IF · Osters IF win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Norrby IF win34%

Draw26%

Osters IF win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · Borås Arena

Referee · Rambod Beigi

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Norrby IF

4-4-2

1 S. Banozic

14 O. Backlund

3 J. Engvall

5 V. Svendsen

17 T. Spendler

7 J. Johansson

18 C. Axede

16 F. Gustafsson

10 J. Bichis

11 K. Liimatainen

28 H. Tilly

Coach · Tobias Linderoth

Substitutes

12 · T. Svensson

2 · D. Bendrik

4 · A. Nedzibovic

6 · J. Hjalmar

8 · M. Wester

9 · Y. Abdulazeez

13 · I. Adewale

15 · E. Ferreira

19 · F. Neat

Osters IF

4-2-3-1

1 C. Lundahl

15 T. Varmanen

3 K. Gyamfi

4 S. Starke

14 D. Olsson

17 H. Bladh Pijaca

8 D. Ask

10 O. Uddenas

6 N. Soderberg

11 F. Olsson

19 M. Tamminen

Coach · Daniel Friberg

Substitutes

5 · M. Adolfsson

7 · I. Jardler

16 · R. Adjei

18 · K. Marrah

24 · N. Ayorinde

29 · M. Due Grandt

33 · M. Hartmann

34 · W. I. Thellsson C.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Norrby IF

4-4-2

1 S. Banozic

14 O. Backlund

3 J. Engvall

5 V. Svendsen

17 T. Spendler

7 J. Johansson

18 C. Axede

16 F. Gustafsson

10 J. Bichis

11 K. Liimatainen

28 H. Tilly

Coach · Tobias Linderoth

Substitutes

12 · T. Svensson

2 · D. Bendrik

4 · A. Nedzibovic

6 · J. Hjalmar

8 · M. Wester

9 · Y. Abdulazeez

13 · I. Adewale

15 · E. Ferreira

19 · F. Neat

Osters IF

4-2-3-1

1 C. Lundahl

15 T. Varmanen

3 K. Gyamfi

4 S. Starke

14 D. Olsson

17 H. Bladh Pijaca

8 D. Ask

10 O. Uddenas

6 N. Soderberg

11 F. Olsson

19 M. Tamminen

Coach · Daniel Friberg

Substitutes

5 · M. Adolfsson

7 · I. Jardler

16 · R. Adjei

18 · K. Marrah

24 · N. Ayorinde

29 · M. Due Grandt

33 · M. Hartmann

34 · W. I. Thellsson C.

Our number · osters if winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

40% The market29%

Us40%

~~Market~~29%

We make Osters IF a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · osters if win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Norrby IF win	34%	47%	−13
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Osters IF win	40%	29%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	51%	63%	−11
Both teams to score	55%	64%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	76%	83%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	30%	42%	−13
Norrby IF or draw	60%	71%	−11
Norrby IF clean sheet	24%	–	–
Osters IF clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.1 8.9 6.7 3.2 1 8.0 12.4 8.5 4.1 2 5.5 7.8 5.5 2.7 3 2.4 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Norrby IF down, Osters IF across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,420 Superettan matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Norrby IF at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Osters IF away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Norrby IF, 1.44 for Osters IF. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:35. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~OST 2–1 NOR · NOR 2–0 OST · OST 2–0 NOR · NOR 0–0 OST

Form · last six in Superettan

NORRBY IF

DLLLLD1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

OSTERS IF

WDLLWL1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	25	+32	55
2	Falkenbergs FF	25	+13	45
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	25	+11	44
4	Ostersunds FK	25	+9	43
5	Landskrona BoIS	25	+13	40
6	Oddevold	25	+4	36
7	Osters IF	25	0	36
8	United Nordic	25	−2	36
9	Sandviken	25	+6	34
10	Helsingborg	25	−9	30
11	IFK Varnamo	25	−12	29
12	Ljungskile SK	25	−3	28
13	Norrby IF	25	−7	24
14	Orebro SK	25	−12	24
15	IK brage	25	−9	23
16	GIF Sundsvall	25	−34	19