Norrby IF v IFK Varnamo prediction · Superettan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Norrby IFDrawIFK Varnamo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Norrby IF 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Norrby IF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Norrby IF 45%, draw 26%, IFK Varnamo 29%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Norrby IF v IFK VarnamoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Norrby IF win45%

Draw26%

IFK Varnamo win29%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Norrby IF

IFK Varnamo

13Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Superettan

Last match: 24 Oct · Superettan

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	IFK Varnamo	28	−13	32
13	Norrby IF	27	−6	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · norrby if winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Norrby IF a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Norrby IF v IFK Varnamo~~1.52 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 27 v 32~~13 v 11

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Norrby IF win	45%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
IFK Varnamo win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Norrby IF or draw	71%	–	–
Norrby IF clean sheet	32%	–	–
IFK Varnamo clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.6 7.5 4.6 1 10.0 12.4 6.9 2.7 2 7.9 9.0 5.2 2.0 3 4.0 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Norrby IF down, IFK Varnamo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,440 Superettan matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 220 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Norrby IF at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). IFK Varnamo away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Norrby IF, 1.16 for IFK Varnamo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~IFK 2–2 NOR · IFK 1–2 NOR · NOR 2–0 IFK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 5 Sept

NORRBY IF

LLLDWL1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

IFK VARNAMO

WLWLWL4–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	27	+36	59
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	+15	51
3	Ostersunds FK	28	+12	48
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	+11	46
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	+13	43
6	Oddevold	28	+11	42
7	Osters IF	28	+1	42
8	United Nordic	28	−6	39
9	Sandviken	28	+6	38
10	Ljungskile SK	27	−1	32
11	IFK Varnamo	28	−13	32
12	Helsingborg	27	−11	31
13	Norrby IF	27	−6	27
14	IK brage	28	−10	26
15	Orebro SK	27	−12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	28	−46	19