Norrby IF v IFK Norrkoping prediction · Superettan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Norrby IFDrawIFK Norrkoping

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · IFK Norrkoping 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

IFK Norrkoping are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Norrby IF 28%, draw 27%, IFK Norrkoping 46%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Norrby IF v IFK NorrkopingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Norrby IF win28%

Draw27%

IFK Norrkoping win46%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueBorås Arena

RefereeAdi Aganovic

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Norrby IF

IFK Norrkoping

7Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Superettan

Last match: 20 Oct · Superettan

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ifk norrkoping winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 21 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

46% The market49%

Us46%

~~Market~~49%

We make IFK Norrkoping a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Norrby IF v IFK Norrkoping~~1.09 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 27 v 59~~13 v 1

~~The market · IFK Norrkoping win~~49% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · IFK Norrkoping win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Norrby IF win	28%	27%	+1
Draw	27%	25%	+2
IFK Norrkoping win	46%	49%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	59%	−12
Both teams to score	51%	61%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	73%	80%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	26%	38%	−12
Norrby IF or draw	54%	51%	+3
Norrby IF clean sheet	23%	–	–
IFK Norrkoping clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.3 10.8 8.4 4.2 1 7.9 12.6 8.9 4.4 2 4.6 6.6 4.8 2.4 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Norrby IF down, IFK Norrkoping across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,440 Superettan matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 220 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Norrby IF at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). IFK Norrkoping away: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Norrby IF, 1.48 for IFK Norrkoping. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~IFK 0–1 NOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 4 Sept

NORRBY IF

LLLDWL1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

IFK NORRKOPING

DWDWWD2–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	27	+36	59
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	+15	51
3	Ostersunds FK	28	+12	48
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	+11	46
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	+13	43
6	Oddevold	28	+11	42
7	Osters IF	27	0	39
8	United Nordic	28	−6	39
9	Sandviken	28	+6	38
10	Ljungskile SK	27	−1	32
11	IFK Varnamo	28	−13	32
12	Helsingborg	27	−11	31
13	Norrby IF	27	−6	27
14	IK brage	27	−9	26
15	Orebro SK	27	−12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	28	−46	19