Ljungskile SK v IK brage prediction · Superettan

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Ljungskile SK 2–0 IK brage LJUNGSKILE SK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ljungskile SK win~~46%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.438

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.474

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ljungskile SK win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ljungskile SK was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
1′KICK-OFF Ljungskile SK v IK brage
30′We published Ljungskile SK at 46%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
30′A goal for Ljungskile SK on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–10
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Ljungskile SK 1–0 IK brage
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Ljungskile SK win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' IK brage
45′HALF-TIME Ljungskile SK 1–0 IK brage
46′SECOND HALF Ljungskile SK 1–0 IK brage
47′We published Ljungskile SK at 46%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Ljungskile SK 2–0 IK brage
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Ljungskile SK win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
51′47′: Lukas corner on the scoresheet for Ljungskile SK, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' IK brage · On: Alex Mortensen · Off: Jacob Stensson
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Ljungskile SK
56′We published Ljungskile SK at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Ljungskile SK win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 59' IK brage · On: mass sise · Off: York Rafael
65′SUBSTITUTION · 59' IK brage · On: Gustav Berggren · Off: Lasse Bruun Madsen
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ljungskile SK · On: William Nilsson · Off: elton hedstrom
81′🟨 YELLOW · 75' mass sise · IK brage
83′We published Ljungskile SK at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' IK brage · On: Gideon Granstrom · Off: Albin Sporrong
85′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Samuel Adrian · Ljungskile SK
89′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Gideon Granstrom · IK brage
93′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Ljungskile SK · On: samuel hogblom · Off: Samuel Adrian
93′SUBSTITUTION · 86' IK brage · On: Jakob Römo Skille · Off: Pontus Jonsson
FTFULL TIME Ljungskile SK 2–0 IK brage
FTLjungskile SK 2–0 IK brage · Ljungskile SK win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ljungskile SK are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ljungskile SK 46%, draw 24%, IK brage 30%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Ljungskile SK v IK brageBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ljungskile SK win46%

Draw24%

IK brage win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueSkarsjövallen

RefereeFarouk Nehdi

Line-ups

Ljungskile SK

3-4-3

IK brage

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ljungskile SK

IK brage

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Superettan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Ljungskile SK	26	−3	29
14	IK brage	26	−7	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ljungskile SK

3-4-3

1 L. Eriksson

23 M. Uzel

60 G. Mensah

69 I. Maric

16 E. Reljanovic

14 D. Lagerlof

58 S. Adrian

27 A. Boren

71 D. Ljung

99 L. Lindholm Corner

19 D. E. Hedstrom J.

Coach · Tor-Arne Fredheim

Substitutes

20 · C. Hogg

3 · G. Johanstrommer Hedin

5 · F. Ornblom

9 · A. Rasheed

11 · S. Omar

12 · S. Hogblom

13 · W. Nilsson

15 · D. Frisk

18 · H. Borstam

IK brage

4-2-3-1

1 V. Frodig

17 P. Jonsson

2 A. Zetterstrom

22 T. Stagaard

16 Y. Rafael

7 J. Stensson

6 L. Madsen

11 A. Lundin

20 V. Okeke

8 A. Sporrong

9 F. Trpcevski

Coach · Anders Baath-Sjoblom

Substitutes

30 · J. Guadagno

5 · L. Konjuhi

10 · G. Berggren

12 · A. Mortensen

14 · J. Skille

19 · M. Sise

24 · A. Hellblom

25 · A. Pihlstrom

28 · G. Granstrom

Our number · ljungskile sk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

46% The market44%

Us46%

~~Market~~44%

We make Ljungskile SK a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ljungskile SK v IK brage~~1.73 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 29 v 26~~11 v 14

~~The market · Ljungskile SK win~~44% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ljungskile SK win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. The market has gone from 48% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ljungskile SK win	46%	44%	+2
Draw	24%	26%	−2
IK brage win	30%	31%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	59%	60%	−1
Both teams to score	61%	63%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	37%	40%	−3
Ljungskile SK or draw	70%	69%	+1
Ljungskile SK clean sheet	26%	–	–
IK brage clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.2 5.9 4.2 1 7.6 11.1 7.2 3.2 2 6.9 9.2 6.1 2.8 3 4.0 5.3 3.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ljungskile SK down, IK brage across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,428 Superettan matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ljungskile SK at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). IK brage away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Ljungskile SK, 1.34 for IK brage. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~IKB 2–2 LJU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 29 Aug

LJUNGSKILE SK

LDWLLD0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–1

IK BRAGE

LLDDLW1–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	26	+36	58
2	Falkenbergs FF	26	+14	48
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	26	+11	45
4	Ostersunds FK	26	+9	44
5	Landskrona BoIS	26	+14	43
6	Oddevold	26	+6	39
7	Osters IF	26	−2	36
8	United Nordic	26	−4	36
9	Sandviken	26	+5	34
10	Helsingborg	26	−11	30
11	Ljungskile SK	26	−3	29
12	IFK Varnamo	26	−13	29
13	Norrby IF	26	−5	27
14	IK brage	26	−7	26
15	Orebro SK	26	−12	25
16	GIF Sundsvall	26	−38	19