Landskrona BoIS v Varbergs BoIS FC prediction · Superettan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Landskrona BoISDrawVarbergs BoIS FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Landskrona BoIS 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Landskrona BoIS are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Landskrona BoIS 43%, draw 25%, Varbergs BoIS FC 31%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Landskrona BoIS v Varbergs BoIS FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Landskrona BoIS win43%

Draw25%

Varbergs BoIS FC win31%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueLandskrona Idrottsplats

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Landskrona BoIS

Varbergs BoIS FC

10Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Superettan

Last match: 19 Oct · Superettan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	+11	46
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	+13	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · landskrona bois winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market46%

Us43%

~~Market~~46%

We make Landskrona BoIS a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Landskrona BoIS v Varbergs BoIS FC~~1.60 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 43 v 46~~5 v 4

~~The market · Landskrona BoIS win~~46% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Landskrona BoIS win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Landskrona BoIS win	43%	46%	−3
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Varbergs BoIS FC win	31%	28%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	56%	0
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	35%	−1
Landskrona BoIS or draw	69%	72%	−3
Landskrona BoIS clean sheet	27%	–	–
Varbergs BoIS FC clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.1 6.7 4.7 2.1 1 8.2 11.8 7.4 3.3 2 6.9 9.0 5.9 2.6 3 3.7 4.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Landskrona BoIS down, Varbergs BoIS FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,437 Superettan matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Landskrona BoIS, 1.32 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~5 of 5

~~Last meetings~~VAR 2–3 LAN · LAN 2–1 VAR · VAR 4–2 LAN · LAN 1–4 VAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 5 Sept

LANDSKRONA BOIS

WLWWWL3–1 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 3–4

VARBERGS BOIS FC

DLWWDD1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	27	+36	59
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	+15	51
3	Ostersunds FK	28	+12	48
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	+11	46
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	+13	43
6	Oddevold	28	+11	42
7	Osters IF	27	0	39
8	United Nordic	28	−6	39
9	Sandviken	28	+6	38
10	Ljungskile SK	27	−1	32
11	IFK Varnamo	28	−13	32
12	Helsingborg	27	−11	31
13	Norrby IF	27	−6	27
14	IK brage	27	−9	26
15	Orebro SK	27	−12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	28	−46	19