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IK brage v Osters IF

IK brage
4–5Full time
Osters IF

Superettan · SAT 24 OCT · Domnarvsvallen

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45
IK brage 4–5 Osters IF OSTERS IF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Osters IF win39%
The market said30%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.564
The market’s Brier score0.768

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay26 notes · 36 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Osters IF win at 39%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF IK brage v Osters IF
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Osters IF 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 36–25–39
  4. 7′We said Osters IF at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 64%. 0–1 · 17–19–64
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' IK brage 0–1 Osters IF
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Osters IF win: 39% at kick-off, 64% now
  7. 8′Osters IF score on 7′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–19–64
  8. 9′Osters IF score on 8′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–19–64
  9. 16′We said Osters IF at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–1 · 16–20–65
  10. 19′We said Osters IF at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–2 · 5–10–85
  11. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' IK brage 0–2 Osters IF
  12. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Osters IF win: 39% at kick-off, 85% now
  13. 28′Osters IF ahead on 18′ through Matias Tamminen. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–9–86
  14. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Osters IF
  15. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 34' mass sise · IK brage
  16. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Osters IF win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
  17. 43′We said Osters IF at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
  18. 44′We said Osters IF at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–3 · 0–2–98
  19. 44′We said Osters IF at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  20. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' IK brage 0–3 Osters IF
  21. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' IK brage 0–4 Osters IF
  22. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Osters IF win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
  23. 45′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  24. 45′HALF-TIME IK brage 1–4 Osters IF
  25. 46′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–2–98
  26. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' IK brage 1–4 Osters IF
  27. 46′SECOND HALF IK brage 1–4 Osters IF
  28. 51′IK brage find the net on 45′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–1–98
  29. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' IK brage
  30. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Osters IF
  31. 54′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 2–6–92
  32. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' IK brage 2–4 Osters IF
  33. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Osters IF win: 39% at kick-off, 92% now
  34. 57′A goal for IK brage on 54′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 1–6–93
  35. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' IK brage · On: Gideon Granstrom · Off: Ozor Victor Okeke
  36. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' IK brage · On: Alex Mortensen · Off: mass sise
  37. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' IK brage · On: Gustav Berggren · Off: Lasse Bruun Madsen
  38. 59′55′: Alex Mortensen on the scoresheet for IK brage. 2–5 · 0–1–99
  39. 59′7 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–5 · 0–1–99
  40. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' IK brage 2–5 Osters IF
  41. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Osters IF win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
  42. 60′That is 8, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–5 · 1–5–94
  43. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' IK brage 3–5 Osters IF
  44. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Osters IF win: 39% at kick-off, 94% now
  45. 62′A goal for Osters IF on 58′. 3–5 · 1–5–94
  46. 64′IK brage find the net on 61′. 3–5. 3–5 · 1–4–95
  47. 69′We said Osters IF at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 4–5 · 4–18–78
  48. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' IK brage 4–5 Osters IF
  49. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Osters IF win: 39% at kick-off, 78% now
  50. 70′9 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–5 · 4–18–78
  51. 71′A goal for IK brage on 69′ — 4–5. 4–5 · 3–18–79
  52. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Osters IF · On: Tatu Varmanen · Off: Raymond Adjei
  53. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' IK brage · On: Anders Hellblom · Off: Noah Östberg
  54. 72′We said Osters IF at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 4–5 · 3–17–80
  55. 77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' IK brage
  56. 78′IK brage have ten men and Osters IF ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 4–5 · 2–14–85
  57. 78′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Osters IF
  58. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Osters IF win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
  59. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Osters IF · On: Hannes·Bladh Pijaca · Off: Matias Tamminen
  60. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' IK brage · On: Jakob Römo Skille · Off: Tobias Stagaard
  61. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Osters IF · On: Kingsley gyamfi · Off: Sebastian Starke Hedlund
  62. 93′IK brage are down to ten from 73′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 4–5 · 0–2–97
  63. FTFULL TIME IK brage 4–5 Osters IF
  64. FTIK brage 4–5 Osters IF · Osters IF win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Osters IF just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: IK brage 37%, draw 24%, Osters IF 39%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on IK brage v Osters IFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

IK brage win37%
Draw24%
Osters IF win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueDomnarvsvallen

RefereeJasmin Svraka

Line-ups

IK brage

4-3-3

Osters IF

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

IK brage

Osters IF

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Superettan

Last match: 17 Oct · Superettan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Osters IF27039
14IK brage27−926

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

IK brage

4-3-3

1 V. Frodig

21 N. Östberg

2 A. Zetterström

22 T. Stagaard

16 Y. Rafael

8 A. Sporrong

7 J. Stensson

6 Lasse Madsen

11 A. Lundin

19 M. Sise

20 V. Ozor Okeke

Coach · Gustav Källberg

Substitutes

15 · Oliwer Stark

10 · G. Berggren

28 · G. Granström

30 · J. Guadagno

24 · A. Hellblom

17 · P. Jonsson

5 · L. Konjuhi

12 · A. Mortensen

14 · J. Skille

Osters IF

4-3-3

12 L. Enzenross

16 R. Adjei

5 M. Adolfsson

4 S. Hedlund

14 D. Olsson

6 N. Söderberg

18 K. Marrah

29 M. Due Grandt

10 O. Uddenäs

9 K. Jawla

19 M. Tamminen

Coach · D. Friberg

Substitutes

34 · W. Thellsson

21 · V. Lind

33 · M. Hartmann

3 · K. Gyamfi

17 · H. Pijaca

24 · N. Ayorinde

8 · D. Ask

Our number · osters if winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
39% The market30%
Us39%
Market30%

We make Osters IF a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · IK brage v Osters IF1.56 – 1.62
Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 4 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 26 v 3914 v 7
The market · Osters IF win30% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 15:16
Our probability · Osters IF win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
IK brage win37%46%−9
Draw24%25%−1
Osters IF win39%30%+9
Over 2.5 goals61%63%−2
Both teams to score63%65%−2
Over 1.5 goals83%83%0
Over 3.5 goals39%44%−5
IK brage or draw61%70%−9
IK brage clean sheet20%––
Osters IF clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%
0123450 4.8 6.3 5.5 3.0 1 6.1 10.9 8.4 4.5 2 5.1 8.1 6.5 3.5 3 2.7 4.2 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+IK brage down, Osters IF across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsOST 3–2 IKB · OST 4–1 IKB · OST 0–2 IKB · IKB 1–0 OST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 4 Sept

IK BRAGE

LDDLWL0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–2

OSTERS IF

LLWLLW1–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1IFK Norrkoping27+3659
2Falkenbergs FF27+1551
3Varbergs BoIS FC27+1146
4Ostersunds FK27+945
5Landskrona BoIS27+1343
6Oddevold28+1142
7Osters IF27039
8United Nordic27−339
9Sandviken27+535
10Ljungskile SK27−132
11IFK Varnamo27−1232
12Helsingborg27−1131
13Norrby IF27−627
14IK brage27−926
15Orebro SK27−1226
16GIF Sundsvall28−4619

The competition's standings before kick-off.