IK brage v Helsingborg prediction · Superettan

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

IK brage 2–0 Helsingborg IK BRAGE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said IK brage win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.484

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.508

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said IK brage win at 43%.
2′Little has changed for our model: IK brage 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–33
2′KICK-OFF IK brage v Helsingborg
3′Little has changed for our model: IK brage 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' IK brage 1–0 Helsingborg
23′Alexander Zetterstrom scores for IK brage on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' IK brage win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' IK brage win: 43% at kick-off, 44% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' IK brage win: 43% at kick-off, 44% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' IK brage win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
25′Alexander Zetterstrom scores for IK brage on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' IK brage win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Lasse Bruun Madsen · IK brage
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' IK brage win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 42' IK brage · On: Ozor Victor Okeke · Off: mass sise Corrected
45′HALF-TIME IK brage 1–0 Helsingborg
46′SECOND HALF IK brage 1–0 Helsingborg
70′⚽ GOAL · 68' IK brage 1–0 Helsingborg
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Helsingborg
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Helsingborg · On: Leo Hedenberg · Off: Max Svensson Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Helsingborg · On: Timothé Rupil · Off: Julian Larsson Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Helsingborg · On: Osman Abdulkadir Addo · Off: Erik Lindell Corrected
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' IK brage 2–0 Helsingborg · Alexander Zetterstrom
79′⚽ GOAL · 77' IK brage 2–0 Helsingborg
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' IK brage · On: Gustav Berggren · Off: Lasse Bruun Madsen Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' IK brage · On: Alex Mortensen · Off: York Rafael Corrected
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' IK brage
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' IK brage · On: Pontus Jonsson · Off: Anton Lundin Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' IK brage
FTFULL TIME IK brage 2–0 Helsingborg
FTIK brage 2–0 Helsingborg · IK brage win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

IK brage win43%

Draw24%

Helsingborg win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueDomnarvsvallen

RefereeFredrik Oppong

Line-ups

IK brage

4-2-3-1

Helsingborg

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

IK brage

Helsingborg

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Helsingborg	25	−9	30
15	IK brage	25	−9	23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

IK brage

4-2-3-1

1 V. Frodig

21 N. Ostberg

2 A. Zetterstrom

22 T. Stagaard

16 Y. Rafael

7 J. Stensson

6 L. Madsen

11 A. Lundin

9 F. Trpcevski

8 A. Sporrong

19 M. Sise

Coach · Anders Baath-Sjoblom

Substitutes

30 · J. Guadagno

5 · L. Konjuhi

10 · G. Berggren

12 · A. Mortensen

14 · J. Skille

17 · P. Jonsson

24 · A. Hellblom

28 · G. Granstrom

20 · V. Okeke

Helsingborg

3-5-2

30 E. Radahl

4 M. Gudmann

3 J. Voelkerling Persson

42 L. Hyppanen

31 E. Lindell

14 L. Kjellnas

26 L. Sadiku

21 J. Larsson

5 S. Bengtsson

10 M. Svensson

11 A. Akimey

Coach · Mikael Stahre

Substitutes

1 · J. Brattberg

8 · O. Addo

19 · L. Persson

20 · L. Hedenberg

22 · T. Rupil

35 · S. Bomboko

45 · D. Amadou

58 · C. Biten

Our number · ik brage winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make IK brage a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ik brage win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IK brage win	43%	42%	+1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Helsingborg win	32%	32%	0
Over 2.5 goals	60%	56%	+4
Both teams to score	62%	60%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	36%	+2
IK brage or draw	68%	68%	0
IK brage clean sheet	24%	–	–
Helsingborg clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 4.9 5.9 4.5 2.2 1 7.1 11.0 7.5 3.6 2 6.3 8.9 6.3 3.0 3 3.6 5.0 3.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IK brage down, Helsingborg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,424 Superettan matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 204 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.11 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IK brage at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Helsingborg away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for IK brage, 1.44 for Helsingborg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:44. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.11

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~HEL 2–0 IKB · IKB 3–2 HEL · HEL 1–0 IKB · IKB 0–3 HEL

Form · last six in Superettan

IK BRAGE

LLLDDL1–2 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3

HELSINGBORG

LDLWLD1–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	25	+32	55
2	Falkenbergs FF	25	+13	45
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	26	+11	45
4	Ostersunds FK	26	+9	44
5	Landskrona BoIS	26	+14	43
6	Oddevold	26	+6	39
7	Osters IF	26	−2	36
8	United Nordic	26	−4	36
9	Sandviken	26	+5	34
10	Helsingborg	25	−9	30
11	IFK Varnamo	25	−12	29
12	Ljungskile SK	25	−3	28
13	Norrby IF	26	−5	27
14	Orebro SK	25	−12	24
15	IK brage	25	−9	23
16	GIF Sundsvall	25	−34	19