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IFK Varnamo v Sandviken

IFK Varnamo
0–1Full time
Sandviken

Superettan · SAT 24 OCT · Finnvedsvallen

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53
IFK Varnamo 0–1 Sandviken IFK VARNAMO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said IFK Varnamo win39%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.629
The market’s Brier score0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said IFK Varnamo win at 39%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: IFK Varnamo was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–26–36
  3. 2′KICK-OFF IFK Varnamo v Sandviken
  4. 8′A red card for IFK Varnamo on 6′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 38–26–35
  5. 8′🟥 RED CARD · 6' IFK Varnamo
  6. 13′SUBSTITUTION · 12' IFK Varnamo · On: Samuel Ohlsson · Off: Marcus Antonsson
  7. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Wilhelm Nilsson · Sandviken
  8. 39′Sandviken have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–34–32
  9. 45′HALF-TIME IFK Varnamo 0–0 Sandviken
  10. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was IFK Varnamo win 34%)
  11. 46′SECOND HALF IFK Varnamo 0–0 Sandviken
  12. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' IFK Varnamo · On: Douglas Bergqvist · Off: Musa Oluwaseyi Akinfenwa
  13. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sandviken · On: Christian Wagner · Off: alan carleton
  14. 52′Sandviken have had 12 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 31–41–29
  15. 55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–43–28
  16. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' IFK Varnamo win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  17. 60′We said IFK Varnamo at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–47–26
  18. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sandviken · On: Victor Backman · Off: Wilhelm Nilsson
  19. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Zakarias·Ravik · IFK Varnamo
  20. 66′We said IFK Varnamo at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
  21. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' IFK Varnamo · On: Simon Thern · Off: calle johansson
  22. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' IFK Varnamo · On: Logi Hrafn Robertsson · Off: Kai Meriluoto
  23. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sandviken · On: Nino Geiger · Off: Karl Bohm
  24. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sandviken · On: Yabets Yaliso Yaya · Off: christopher rogers
  25. 74′We said IFK Varnamo at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
  26. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' IFK Varnamo win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  27. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' IFK Varnamo · On: Carl Johansson · Off: August Ljungberg
  28. 80′We said IFK Varnamo at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–74–13
  29. 83′Sandviken have had 16 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 10–80–10
  30. 84′We said IFK Varnamo at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
  31. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' IFK Varnamo win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  32. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sandviken · On: Isac lindholm · Off: D. Bergman
  33. 91′We said IFK Varnamo at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  34. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' IFK Varnamo 0–1 Sandviken
  35. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Sandviken win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 94%)
  36. 95′Sandviken ahead on 90′ through Isac lindholm. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
  37. FTFULL TIME IFK Varnamo 0–1 Sandviken
  38. FTIFK Varnamo 0–1 Sandviken · IFK Varnamo win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with IFK Varnamo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: IFK Varnamo 39%, draw 25%, Sandviken 36%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on IFK Varnamo v SandvikenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

IFK Varnamo win39%
Draw25%
Sandviken win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueFinnvedsvallen

RefereeKarlsson Niclas

Line-ups

IFK Varnamo

4-4-2

Sandviken

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

IFK Varnamo

Sandviken

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Superettan

Last match: 17 Oct · Superettan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Sandviken27+535
11IFK Varnamo27−1232

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

IFK Varnamo

4-4-2

1 H. Keto

19 Erik Jacob Freij

2 J. Rapp

16 Z. Råvik

3 A. Björnström

33 Musa Oluwaseyi Akinfenwa

26 C. Johansson

10 V. Claesson

11 A. Ljungberg

14 M. Antonsson

9 K. Meriluoto

Coach · K. Bergstrand

Substitutes

39 · L. Selin

23 · L. Róbertsson

4 · S. Ohlsson

24 · Mohamed Kamara

8 · H. Andersson Mella

5 · D. Bergqvist

7 · C. Johansson

22 · S. Thern

13 · S. Jansson

Sandviken

4-2-3-1

1 H. Sveijer

23 K. Harletun

2 Gustav Johan Wilhelm Thörn

17 W. Nilsson

18 C. Rogers

22 D. Bergman

16 M. Abubakari

26 L. Tagesson

7 J. Arvidsson

12 A. Carleton

8 K. Bohm

Coach · Thomas Lagerlöf

Substitutes

24 · Y. Yaya

11 · V. Backman

3 · N. Geiger

13 · I. Lindholm

27 · A. Persson

25 · Ilias Barou Sangare

6 · L Vabö

20 · Nicholas Vainio

9 · Christian Wagner

Our number · ifk varnamo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
39% The market47%
Us39%
Market47%

We make IFK Varnamo a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · IFK Varnamo v Sandviken1.53 – 1.46
Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 5 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 32 v 3511 v 9
The market · IFK Varnamo win47% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 11:53
Our probability · IFK Varnamo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
IFK Varnamo win39%47%−8
Draw25%25%0
Sandviken win36%28%+8
Over 2.5 goals57%59%−2
Both teams to score60%61%−1
Over 1.5 goals80%79%+1
Over 3.5 goals35%38%−3
IFK Varnamo or draw64%72%−8
IFK Varnamo clean sheet24%––
Sandviken clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 5.7 6.9 5.4 2.6 1 7.3 11.6 8.0 3.9 2 5.9 8.4 6.1 3.0 3 3.0 4.3 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+IFK Varnamo down, Sandviken across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsSAN 0–1 IFK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 5 Sept

IFK VARNAMO

DWLWLW1–1 · 4–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

SANDVIKEN

WLDWLD2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1IFK Norrkoping27+3659
2Falkenbergs FF27+1551
3Varbergs BoIS FC27+1146
4Ostersunds FK27+945
5Landskrona BoIS27+1343
6Oddevold28+1142
7Osters IF27039
8United Nordic27−339
9Sandviken27+535
10Ljungskile SK27−132
11IFK Varnamo27−1232
12Helsingborg27−1131
13Norrby IF27−627
14IK brage27−926
15Orebro SK27−1226
16GIF Sundsvall28−4619

The competition's standings before kick-off.