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IFK Varnamo v Sandviken
IFK Varnamo
SandvikenSuperettan · SAT 24 OCT · Finnvedsvallen
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said IFK Varnamo win at 39%.
- 2′Much as we predicted: IFK Varnamo was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–26–36
- 2′KICK-OFF IFK Varnamo v Sandviken
- 8′A red card for IFK Varnamo on 6′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 38–26–35
- 8′🟥 RED CARD · 6' IFK Varnamo
- 13′SUBSTITUTION · 12' IFK Varnamo · On: Samuel Ohlsson · Off: Marcus Antonsson
- 31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Wilhelm Nilsson · Sandviken
- 39′Sandviken have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–34–32
- 45′HALF-TIME IFK Varnamo 0–0 Sandviken
- 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was IFK Varnamo win 34%)
- 46′SECOND HALF IFK Varnamo 0–0 Sandviken
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' IFK Varnamo · On: Douglas Bergqvist · Off: Musa Oluwaseyi Akinfenwa
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sandviken · On: Christian Wagner · Off: alan carleton
- 52′Sandviken have had 12 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 31–41–29
- 55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–43–28
- 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' IFK Varnamo win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
- 60′We said IFK Varnamo at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–47–26
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sandviken · On: Victor Backman · Off: Wilhelm Nilsson
- 62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Zakarias·Ravik · IFK Varnamo
- 66′We said IFK Varnamo at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' IFK Varnamo · On: Simon Thern · Off: calle johansson
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' IFK Varnamo · On: Logi Hrafn Robertsson · Off: Kai Meriluoto
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sandviken · On: Nino Geiger · Off: Karl Bohm
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sandviken · On: Yabets Yaliso Yaya · Off: christopher rogers
- 74′We said IFK Varnamo at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' IFK Varnamo win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' IFK Varnamo · On: Carl Johansson · Off: August Ljungberg
- 80′We said IFK Varnamo at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–74–13
- 83′Sandviken have had 16 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 10–80–10
- 84′We said IFK Varnamo at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' IFK Varnamo win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sandviken · On: Isac lindholm · Off: D. Bergman
- 91′We said IFK Varnamo at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
- 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' IFK Varnamo 0–1 Sandviken
- 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Sandviken win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 94%)
- 95′Sandviken ahead on 90′ through Isac lindholm. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
- FTFULL TIME IFK Varnamo 0–1 Sandviken
- FTIFK Varnamo 0–1 Sandviken · IFK Varnamo win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with IFK Varnamo just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: IFK Varnamo 39%, draw 25%, Sandviken 36%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
IFK Varnamo win39%
Sandviken win36%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00
RoundMatchday 28
VenueFinnvedsvallen
RefereeKarlsson Niclas
Match timeline
All events
IFK VarnamoMIN
SandvikenEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
IFK Varnamo
4-4-2
Sandviken
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
IFK Varnamo
Sandviken
Last match: 18 Oct · Superettan
Last match: 17 Oct · Superettan
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
IFK Varnamo
4-4-2
1 H. Keto
19 Erik Jacob Freij
2 J. Rapp
16 Z. Råvik
3 A. Björnström
33 Musa Oluwaseyi Akinfenwa
26 C. Johansson
10 V. Claesson
11 A. Ljungberg
14 M. Antonsson
9 K. Meriluoto
Coach · K. Bergstrand
Substitutes
39 · L. Selin
23 · L. Róbertsson
4 · S. Ohlsson
24 · Mohamed Kamara
8 · H. Andersson Mella
5 · D. Bergqvist
7 · C. Johansson
22 · S. Thern
13 · S. Jansson
Sandviken
4-2-3-1
1 H. Sveijer
23 K. Harletun
2 Gustav Johan Wilhelm Thörn
17 W. Nilsson
18 C. Rogers
22 D. Bergman
16 M. Abubakari
26 L. Tagesson
7 J. Arvidsson
12 A. Carleton
8 K. Bohm
Coach · Thomas Lagerlöf
Substitutes
24 · Y. Yaya
11 · V. Backman
3 · N. Geiger
13 · I. Lindholm
27 · A. Persson
25 · Ilias Barou Sangare
6 · L Vabö
20 · Nicholas Vainio
9 · Christian Wagner
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
IFK Varnamo
4-4-2
1 H. Keto
19 Erik Jacob Freij
2 J. Rapp
16 Z. Råvik
3 A. Björnström
33 Musa Oluwaseyi Akinfenwa
26 C. Johansson
10 V. Claesson
11 A. Ljungberg
14 M. Antonsson
9 K. Meriluoto
Coach · K. Bergstrand
Substitutes
39 · L. Selin
23 · L. Róbertsson
4 · S. Ohlsson
24 · Mohamed Kamara
8 · H. Andersson Mella
5 · D. Bergqvist
7 · C. Johansson
22 · S. Thern
13 · S. Jansson
Sandviken
4-2-3-1
1 H. Sveijer
23 K. Harletun
2 Gustav Johan Wilhelm Thörn
17 W. Nilsson
18 C. Rogers
22 D. Bergman
16 M. Abubakari
26 L. Tagesson
7 J. Arvidsson
12 A. Carleton
8 K. Bohm
Coach · Thomas Lagerlöf
Substitutes
24 · Y. Yaya
11 · V. Backman
3 · N. Geiger
13 · I. Lindholm
27 · A. Persson
25 · Ilias Barou Sangare
6 · L Vabö
20 · Nicholas Vainio
9 · Christian Wagner
We make IFK Varnamo a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Varnamo win | 39% | 47% | −8 |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 0 |
| Sandviken win | 36% | 28% | +8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| IFK Varnamo or draw | 64% | 72% | −8 |
| IFK Varnamo clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
| Sandviken clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 5 Sept
IFK VARNAMO
SANDVIKEN
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrkoping | 27 | +36 | 59 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 27 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 27 | +11 | 46 |
| 4 | Ostersunds FK | 27 | +9 | 45 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 27 | +13 | 43 |
| 6 | Oddevold | 28 | +11 | 42 |
| 7 | Osters IF | 27 | 0 | 39 |
| 8 | United Nordic | 27 | −3 | 39 |
| 9 | Sandviken | 27 | +5 | 35 |
| 10 | Ljungskile SK | 27 | −1 | 32 |
| 11 | IFK Varnamo | 27 | −12 | 32 |
| 12 | Helsingborg | 27 | −11 | 31 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 27 | −6 | 27 |
| 14 | IK brage | 27 | −9 | 26 |
| 15 | Orebro SK | 27 | −12 | 26 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 28 | −46 | 19 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
IFK Norrkoping
Falkenbergs FF
Varbergs BoIS FC
Ostersunds FK
Landskrona BoIS
Oddevold
Osters IF
United Nordic
Ljungskile SK
Helsingborg
Norrby IF
IK brage
Orebro SK
GIF Sundsvall