IFK Varnamo v Falkenbergs FF prediction · Superettan

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

IFK Varnamo 1–2 Falkenbergs FF FALKENBERGS FF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Falkenbergs FF win~~43%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.482

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.669

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Falkenbergs FF win at 43%.
2′Much as we predicted: Falkenbergs FF was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 33–24–44
3′We published Falkenbergs FF at 43%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 15–18–67
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 44% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 44% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 44% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
22′IFK Varnamo ahead on 13′ through Hugo Andersson Mella. 1–1. 1–1 · 31–28–41
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 44% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
25′IFK Varnamo ahead on 13′ through Hugo Andersson Mella. 1–1. 1–1 · 31–28–40
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Falkenbergs FF win: 43% at kick-off, 40% now
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Falkenbergs FF
40′Much as we predicted: Falkenbergs FF was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 1–1 · 29–33–37
42′Much as we predicted: Falkenbergs FF was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 1–1 · 29–34–37
45′HALF-TIME IFK Varnamo 1–1 Falkenbergs FF
45′SECOND HALF IFK Varnamo 1–1 Falkenbergs FF
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Falkenbergs FF
52′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Godwin Aguda · Falkenbergs FF
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Falkenbergs FF · On: Nils Bertilsson · Off: Ayo Rupia-Ellis Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 68' IFK Varnamo · On: Musa Oluwaseyi Akinfenwa · Off: August Ljungberg Corrected
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Falkenbergs FF
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' IFK Varnamo 1–2 Falkenbergs FF · Hugo Andersson Mella
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' IFK Varnamo · On: Sigge Skorpan Jansson · Off: calle johansson Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' IFK Varnamo · On: Carl Johansson · Off: Hugo Andersson Mella Corrected
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' IFK Varnamo 1–2 Falkenbergs FF
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' IFK Varnamo · On: Simon Thern · Off: Kai Meriluoto Corrected
FTFULL TIME IFK Varnamo 1–2 Falkenbergs FF
FTIFK Varnamo 1–2 Falkenbergs FF · Falkenbergs FF win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

IFK Varnamo win32%

Draw24%

Falkenbergs FF win43%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueFinnvedsvallen

RefereeSars Joakim

Line-ups

IFK Varnamo

4-4-2

Falkenbergs FF

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

IFK Varnamo

Falkenbergs FF

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Falkenbergs FF	25	+13	45
11	IFK Varnamo	25	−12	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

IFK Varnamo

4-4-2

1 H. Keto

18 A. Motaraghebjafarpour

2 J. Rapp

16 Z. Ravik

3 A. Bjornstrom

8 H. Andersson

10 V. Claesson

26 C. Johansson

11 A. Ljungberg

9 K. Meriluoto

14 M. Antonsson

Coach · Kim Bergstrand

Substitutes

39 · L. Selin

4 · S. Ohlsson

7 · C. Johansson

13 · S. Jansson

19 · E. Freij

22 · S. Thern

23 · L. Robertsson

24 · M. Kamara

33 · M. Akinfenwa

Falkenbergs FF

4-4-2

1 A. Andersson

6 L. Borgstrom

17 A. Miftari

23 A. Salo

12 A. Rupia-Ellis

19 O. Lindberg

30 G. Aguda

28 M. Nilsson

10 E. Mohammad

9 A. Andersson

11 H. Kallstrom

Coach · Christoffer Andersson

Substitutes

31 · G. Lillienberg

4 · T. Stalheden

5 · N. Hansson

8 · N. Bertilsson

25 · G. Alexandersson

18 · L. Sangare

21 · L. Beqiri

14 · W. Videhult

29 · H. Komano

Our number · falkenbergs ff winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

43% The market34%

Us43%

~~Market~~34%

We make Falkenbergs FF a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IFK Varnamo win	32%	40%	−7
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Falkenbergs FF win	43%	34%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	61%	56%	+5
Both teams to score	62%	60%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	39%	36%	+3
IFK Varnamo or draw	57%	66%	−10
IFK Varnamo clean sheet	19%	–	–
Falkenbergs FF clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.8 7.0 6.2 3.6 1 5.9 10.8 8.8 5.0 2.2 2 4.5 7.5 6.3 3.6 3 2.2 3.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IFK Varnamo down, Falkenbergs FF across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,424 Superettan matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 204 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IFK Varnamo at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Falkenbergs FF away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for IFK Varnamo, 1.71 for Falkenbergs FF. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FAL 3–1 IFK · IFK 3–2 FAL · FAL 0–3 IFK

Form · last six in Superettan

IFK VARNAMO

DWDWLW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–3 · 2–1

FALKENBERGS FF

LWLWWD1–2 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	25	+32	55
2	Falkenbergs FF	25	+13	45
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	26	+11	45
4	Ostersunds FK	26	+9	44
5	Landskrona BoIS	26	+14	43
6	Oddevold	26	+6	39
7	Osters IF	26	−2	36
8	United Nordic	26	−4	36
9	Sandviken	26	+5	34
10	Helsingborg	25	−9	30
11	IFK Varnamo	25	−12	29
12	Ljungskile SK	25	−3	28
13	Norrby IF	26	−5	27
14	Orebro SK	25	−12	24
15	IK brage	25	−9	23
16	GIF Sundsvall	25	−34	19