IFK Norrkoping v GIF Sundsvall prediction · Superettan

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46

IFK Norrkoping 4–0 GIF Sundsvall IFK NORRKOPING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said IFK Norrkoping win~~67%

~~The market said~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.166

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.067

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said IFK Norrkoping win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: IFK Norrkoping was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–20–13
1′KICK-OFF IFK Norrkoping v GIF Sundsvall
22′IFK Norrkoping have had 8.0 attempts to 0.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 61–25–14
24′A goal for IFK Norrkoping on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–3
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' IFK Norrkoping 1–0 GIF Sundsvall
24′⚽ GOAL · 25' IFK Norrkoping 1–0 GIF Sundsvall
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' IFK Norrkoping win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
26′We published IFK Norrkoping at 67%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–11–3
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' GIF Sundsvall
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 86–11–3
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' IFK Norrkoping 2–0 GIF Sundsvall · Ryan Lee Nelson
38′We published IFK Norrkoping at 67%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' IFK Norrkoping 2–0 GIF Sundsvall · Ryan Lee Nelson
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' IFK Norrkoping win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
40′36′ and it is 2–0: Christoffer Nyman on the scoresheet for IFK Norrkoping. 2–0 · 97–2–0
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' IFK Norrkoping 2–0 GIF Sundsvall
45′SECOND HALF IFK Norrkoping 2–0 GIF Sundsvall
55′SUBSTITUTION · 53' GIF Sundsvall · On: Alper Demirol · Off: Ludvig Nåvik Corrected
55′SUBSTITUTION · 53' GIF Sundsvall · On: Miguel Sandberg · Off: kawa sulaiman Corrected
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' IFK Norrkoping 3–0 GIF Sundsvall · Christoffer Nyman
72′We published IFK Norrkoping at 67%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' IFK Norrkoping · On: Axel Brönner · Off: Viktor Christiansson Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' IFK Norrkoping · On: Jonas Bertheussen Weber · Off: Ture Sandberg Corrected
74′⚽ GOAL · 72' IFK Norrkoping 3–0 GIF Sundsvall · Axel Brönner
75′IFK Norrkoping ahead on 72′ through Axel Brönner. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' GIF Sundsvall · On: Edward Carrick · Off: Elvis Hansson Corrected
75′⚽ GOAL · 72' IFK Norrkoping 3–0 GIF Sundsvall · Axel Brönner (assist Christoffer Nyman)
79′A goal for IFK Norrkoping on 87′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' IFK Norrkoping · On: Filip Dagerstål · Off: Aleksander Opsahl Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' IFK Norrkoping · On: Tim Prica · Off: Ryan Lee Nelson Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' IFK Norrkoping · On: Albert aleksanjan · Off: Elias Jemal Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 83' GIF Sundsvall · On: joshua mambu · Off: Eron Gojani Corrected
79′🟨 YELLOW · 84' GIF Sundsvall
79′⚽ GOAL · 87' IFK Norrkoping 3–0 GIF Sundsvall
FTFULL TIME IFK Norrkoping 3–0 GIF Sundsvall
FTIFK Norrkoping 4–0 GIF Sundsvall · IFK Norrkoping win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

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The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

IFK Norrkoping win67%

Draw20%

GIF Sundsvall win13%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

VenueIdrottsparken

RefereeRinon Hasani

Line-ups

IFK Norrkoping

4-3-3

GIF Sundsvall

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

IFK Norrkoping

GIF Sundsvall

24Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	25	+32	55
16	GIF Sundsvall	25	−34	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

IFK Norrkoping

4-3-3

1 T. Krantz

37 M. Neffati

24 A. Eriksson

23 A. Opsahl

38 T. Sandberg

7 A. Fransson

6 V. Christiansson

34 N. Sernelius

8 R. Nelson

5 C. Nyman

11 E. Jemal

Coach · Eldar Abdulic

Substitutes

91 · D. Mitov Nilsson

4 · J. Weber

9 · T. Prica

10 · A. Aleksanjan

14 · I. Sigurgeirsson

19 · L. Lif

20 · A. Bronner

25 · F. Dagerstal

30 · F. Holst-Larsen

GIF Sundsvall

4-4-2

1 J. Olsson

18 L. Forsberg

17 N. Eriksson

4 J. Hedenquist

5 A. Atlee

16 E. Hansson

6 M. Manchon

21 L. Navik

19 E. Gojani

29 K. Sulaiman

9 T. Kagayama

Coach · Ion Doros Guler

Substitutes

3 · M. Hallin

7 · M. Sandberg

14 · A. Demirol

15 · S. Ekong

20 · J. Bjornler

26 · E. Carrick

27 · A. Bahtijar

30 · J. Mambu

34 · W. Bjuhr

Our number · ifk norrkoping winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

67% The market79%

Us67%

~~Market~~79%

We make IFK Norrkoping a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ifk norrkoping win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 77% to 79% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IFK Norrkoping win	67%	79%	−12
Draw	20%	13%	+7
GIF Sundsvall win	13%	8%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	70%	−16
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	86%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	32%	50%	−18
IFK Norrkoping or draw	87%	92%	−5
IFK Norrkoping clean sheet	47%	–	–
GIF Sundsvall clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.5%

0123450 6.4 4.2 1 11.8 9.6 3.6 2 12.5 9.5 3.6 3 8.6 6.5 2.5 4 4.5 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IFK Norrkoping down, GIF Sundsvall across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,427 Superettan matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 207 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IFK Norrkoping at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). GIF Sundsvall away: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for IFK Norrkoping, 0.77 for GIF Sundsvall. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GIF 1–3 IFK

Form · last six in Superettan

IFK NORRKOPING

WWDWDW2–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–1

GIF SUNDSVALL

LWWLLW0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	25	+32	55
2	Falkenbergs FF	26	+14	48
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	26	+11	45
4	Ostersunds FK	26	+9	44
5	Landskrona BoIS	26	+14	43
6	Oddevold	26	+6	39
7	Osters IF	26	−2	36
8	United Nordic	26	−4	36
9	Sandviken	26	+5	34
10	Helsingborg	26	−11	30
11	Ljungskile SK	26	−3	29
12	IFK Varnamo	26	−13	29
13	Norrby IF	26	−5	27
14	IK brage	26	−7	26
15	Orebro SK	26	−12	25
16	GIF Sundsvall	25	−34	19