Helsingborg v Ljungskile SK prediction · Superettan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HelsingborgDrawLjungskile SK

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Helsingborg 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Helsingborg are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Helsingborg 41%, draw 26%, Ljungskile SK 32%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Helsingborg v Ljungskile SKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Helsingborg win41%

Draw26%

Ljungskile SK win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueOlympia

RefereeRambod Beigi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Helsingborg

Ljungskile SK

6Days since last match8

Last match: 19 Oct · Superettan

Last match: 17 Oct · Superettan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Ljungskile SK	27	−1	32
12	Helsingborg	27	−11	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · helsingborg winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Helsingborg a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Helsingborg v Ljungskile SK~~1.47 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 31 v 32~~12 v 10

~~The market · Helsingborg win~~45% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Helsingborg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Helsingborg win	41%	45%	−4
Draw	26%	26%	0
Ljungskile SK win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	37%	−8
Helsingborg or draw	68%	70%	−2
Helsingborg clean sheet	28%	–	–
Ljungskile SK clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.1 7.8 5.2 2.2 1 9.0 12.5 7.6 3.2 2 7.0 8.7 5.5 2.4 3 3.4 4.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Helsingborg down, Ljungskile SK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,440 Superettan matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superettan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 220 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Helsingborg at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ljungskile SK away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Helsingborg, 1.27 for Ljungskile SK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LJU 4–1 HEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superettan this season · since 4 Sept

HELSINGBORG

LWLDLD0–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0

LJUNGSKILE SK

DWLLDW2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	IFK Norrkoping	27	+36	59
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	+15	51
3	Ostersunds FK	28	+12	48
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	+11	46
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	+13	43
6	Oddevold	28	+11	42
7	Osters IF	28	+1	42
8	United Nordic	28	−6	39
9	Sandviken	28	+6	38
10	Ljungskile SK	27	−1	32
11	IFK Varnamo	28	−13	32
12	Helsingborg	27	−11	31
13	Norrby IF	27	−6	27
14	IK brage	28	−10	26
15	Orebro SK	27	−12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	28	−46	19