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Utsikten v Tvååker

Utsikten

1–4Full time

Tvååker

Ettan - Södra · FRI 23 OCT · Nordic Wellness Arena

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Utsikten 1–4 Tvååker TVÅÅKER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tvååker win~~47%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.418

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.189

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tvååker win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tvååker was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 29–24–47
1′KICK-OFF Utsikten v Tvååker
3′Tvååker find the net on 3′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–17–71
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Utsikten 0–1 Tvååker
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Tvååker win: 47% at kick-off, 71% now
4′We published Tvååker at 47%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 12–17–71
9′A goal for Tvååker on 9′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
9′We published Tvååker at 47%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Utsikten 0–2 Tvååker
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Tvååker win: 47% at kick-off, 89% now
16′We published Tvååker at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–7–90
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Utsikten
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Tvååker
43′Tvååker score on 43′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
43′We published Tvååker at 47%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
43′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Utsikten 0–3 Tvååker
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Tvååker win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
45′HALF-TIME Utsikten 0–3 Tvååker
46′SECOND HALF Utsikten 0–3 Tvååker
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Utsikten · On: D. Gustafsson · Off: A. Lindquist
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Utsikten · On: S. Sjoholm · Off: K. Berndtsson
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Utsikten
58′Tvååker find the net on 57′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
58′We published Tvååker at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Utsikten 0–4 Tvååker
59′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
60′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Utsikten · On: T. Sellstedt · Off: O. Ball
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tvååker · On: A. Johansson · Off: L. Munther
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Tvååker
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Tvååker · On: G. Bendrik · Off: A. Ajdarevic
88′A goal for Utsikten on 88′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Utsikten · On: K. Banozic · Off: F. Wennergrund
88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Utsikten · On: H. Wannding · Off: P. Olsson
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Tvååker · On: N. Lundgren · Off: H. Rodin
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Tvååker · On: L. Cronvall · Off: M. Sjoland
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Utsikten 1–4 Tvååker
89′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Utsikten 1–4 Tvååker
FTUtsikten 1–4 Tvååker · Tvååker win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tvååker are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Utsikten 29%, draw 24%, Tvååker 47%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Utsikten v TvååkerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Utsikten win29%

Draw24%

Tvååker win47%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundSödra · matchday 28

VenueNordic Wellness Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Utsikten

Tvååker

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Ettan - Södra

Last match: 17 Oct · Ettan - Södra

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Tvååker	27	−6	35
16	Utsikten	27	−42	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tvååker winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market65%

Us47%

~~Market~~65%

We make Tvååker a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Utsikten v Tvååker~~1.23 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 35~~16 v 10

~~The market · Tvååker win~~65% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tvååker win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Utsikten win	29%	16%	+13
Draw	24%	20%	+4
Tvååker win	47%	65%	−18
Over 2.5 goals	55%	65%	−10
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	82%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	33%	44%	−11
Utsikten or draw	53%	35%	+18
Utsikten clean sheet	20%	–	–
Tvååker clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.9 9.4 7.7 4.3 1 7.0 11.2 9.1 5.1 2.1 2 4.3 6.8 5.6 3.1 3 2.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Utsikten down, Tvååker across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,416 Ettan - Södra matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Utsikten at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tvååker away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Utsikten, 1.66 for Tvååker. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~TVA 2–2 UTS · TVA 2–0 UTS · UTS 0–4 TVA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 16 Sept

UTSIKTEN

DLWLLL0–0 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–4

TVÅÅKER

LLLLDD2–4 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	27	+31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	27	+18	51
3	Atvidabergs FF	27	+13	47
4	Lund	27	+16	44
5	AFC Malmo	27	+11	44
6	Rosengård	27	+4	40
7	Trollhättan	27	+2	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	27	+3	36
9	Olympic	27	+1	36
10	Tvååker	27	−6	35
11	Skövde AIK	27	−9	34
12	Eskilsminne	27	−9	33
13	Kristianstad	27	−8	30
14	Laholm	27	−10	29
15	Angelholms FF	27	−15	24
16	Utsikten	27	−42	12