Tvååker v Rosengård prediction · Ettan

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Tvååker 1–1 Rosengård TVÅÅKER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tvååker win~~40%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.829

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tvååker win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tvååker was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
1′KICK-OFF Tvååker v Rosengård
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Tvååker
22′A goal for Rosengård on 22′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–22–62
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Tvååker 0–1 Rosengård
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Tvååker win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Rosengård win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Tvååker win 15%)
23′We said Tvååker at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–22–63
25′We said Tvååker at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 13–23–64
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Tvååker win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′HALF-TIME Tvååker 0–1 Rosengård
46′We said Tvååker at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tvååker · On: L. Ademi · Off: N. Lundgren
46′SECOND HALF Tvååker 0–1 Rosengård
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Rosengård · On: R. Bonde · Off: M. Ritari
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Rosengård · On: E. Igbonekwu · Off: K. Larsson
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Tvååker
65′We said Tvååker at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Tvååker · On: I. Shamoun · Off: A. Johansson
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Rosengård · On: A. Dumbuya · Off: L. Carlius
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Tvååker
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Tvååker · On: G. Bendrik · Off: M. Sjoland
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Tvååker · On: L. Munther · Off: H. Rodin
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Tvååker
81′Tvååker score on 81′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 12–78–10
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Tvååker 1–1 Rosengård
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Rosengård win 10%)
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Rosengård
FTFULL TIME Tvååker 1–1 Rosengård
FTTvååker 1–1 Rosengård · Tvååker win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tvååker are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tvååker 40%, draw 26%, Rosengård 34%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Tvååker v RosengårdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tvååker win40%

Draw26%

Rosengård win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundSödra · matchday 27

Line-ups

Tvååker

Rosengård

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tvååker

Rosengård

5Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Ettan - Södra

Last match: 10 Oct · Ettan - Södra

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Rosengård	26	+4	39
8	Tvååker	26	−6	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tvååker

Formation not confirmed

35 A. Nielsen

5 V. Gustavsson

24 T. Graudums

20 H. Rodin

7 F. Gustafsson

15 N. Lundgren

8 I. Wiman

9 A. Ajdarevic

22 A. Johansson

11 M. Sjoland

16 M. Laci

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · P. Dahlberg

2 · G. Bendrik

6 · L. Ademi

10 · L. Munther

14 · L. Cronvall

19 · I. Shamoun

Rosengård

Formation not confirmed

3 K. Larsson

6 M. Ritari

10 A. Malaj

11 N. Soderberg

14 L. Carlius

18 M. Andersson

23 O. Hakansson

25 F. Petersen

28 K. Pasalic

42 G. Ankamafio

44 A. Vaporakis

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · A. Mayland

12 · R. Bonde

13 · E. Igbonekwu

19 · G. Backaliden

20 · A. Dumbuya

21 · I. Ljajic

26 · Z. Salifu

Our number · tvååker winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market30%

Us40%

~~Market~~30%

We make Tvååker a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tvååker v Rosengård~~1.41 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 34 v 39~~8 v 6

~~The market · Tvååker win~~30% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tvååker win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tvååker win	40%	30%	+10
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Rosengård win	34%	43%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	50%	57%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	61%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	37%	−9
Tvååker or draw	66%	57%	+9
Tvååker clean sheet	29%	–	–
Rosengård clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.2 8.8 5.6 2.4 1 9.8 12.1 7.6 3.2 2 6.8 8.4 5.3 2.3 3 3.3 4.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tvååker down, Rosengård across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,409 Ettan - Södra matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 209 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tvååker at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Rosengård away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Tvååker, 1.26 for Rosengård. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ROS 0–1 TVA · TVA 1–2 ROS · ROS 0–1 TVA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 11 Sept

TVÅÅKER

DLLLLD0–0 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 1–1

ROSENGÅRD

LLDWLD0–2 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	27	+31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	26	+17	48
3	Atvidabergs FF	26	+14	47
4	Lund	27	+16	44
5	AFC Malmo	26	+12	44
6	Rosengård	26	+4	39
7	Trollhättan	26	+4	38
8	Tvååker	26	−6	34
9	Jonkopings Sodra	26	+2	33
10	Olympic	26	−2	33
11	Skövde AIK	26	−9	33
12	Eskilsminne	26	−9	32
13	Kristianstad	26	−10	27
14	Laholm	26	−11	26
15	Angelholms FF	26	−14	24
16	Utsikten	26	−39	12