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Trollhättan v Jonkopings Sodra

Trollhättan
2–4Full time
Jonkopings Sodra

Ettan - Södra · SAT 24 OCT · Edsborgs IP

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Trollhättan 2–4 Jonkopings Sodra TROLLHÄTTAN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Trollhättan win41%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.691
The market’s Brier score0.663

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Trollhättan win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Trollhättan 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Trollhättan v Jonkopings Sodra
  4. 16′Jonkopings Sodra score on 16′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–23–61
  5. 16′We said Trollhättan at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–23–61
  6. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Trollhättan 0–1 Jonkopings Sodra
  7. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Trollhättan win: 41% at kick-off, 17% now
  8. 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Jonkopings Sodra win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Trollhättan win 39%)
  9. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Jonkopings Sodra
  10. 26′We said Trollhättan at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
  11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 13–23–63
  12. 31′Trollhättan find the net on 31′. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–34–30
  13. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Trollhättan 1–1 Jonkopings Sodra
  14. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Trollhättan win: 41% at kick-off, 36% now
  15. 32′GOAL DISALLOWED · 32' Trollhättan
  16. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Trollhättan win: 41% at kick-off, 13% now
  17. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Trollhättan win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
  18. 44′Trollhättan find the net on 44′. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–39–27
  19. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Trollhättan 1–1 Jonkopings Sodra
  20. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Trollhättan win: 41% at kick-off, 33% now
  21. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Jonkopings Sodra win 67%)
  22. 45′A goal for Jonkopings Sodra on 45′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 10–23–67
  23. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Trollhättan 1–2 Jonkopings Sodra
  24. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Trollhättan win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
  25. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Jonkopings Sodra win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 40%)
  26. 45′HALF-TIME Trollhättan 1–2 Jonkopings Sodra
  27. 46′We said Trollhättan at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–67
  28. 46′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 9–23–67
  29. 54′Jonkopings Sodra score on 46′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–6–93
  30. 54′We said Trollhättan at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–6–93
  31. 54′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–6–93
  32. 54′⚽ GOAL · 46' Trollhättan 1–3 Jonkopings Sodra
  33. 54′SECOND HALF Trollhättan 1–3 Jonkopings Sodra
  34. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Trollhättan win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
  35. 67′Jonkopings Sodra find the net on 66′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  36. 67′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  37. 67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Trollhättan 1–4 Jonkopings Sodra
  38. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Trollhättan · On: A. Gashi · Off: T. Sernling
  39. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Trollhättan
  40. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Trollhättan · On: S. Banous · Off: W. Henriksson
  41. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Jonkopings Sodra · On: C. Hellstrom · Off: F. Benatallah
  42. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Jonkopings Sodra
  43. 92′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  44. 92′A goal for Trollhättan on 90′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  45. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Trollhättan 2–4 Jonkopings Sodra
  46. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Trollhättan
  47. FTFULL TIME Trollhättan 2–4 Jonkopings Sodra
  48. FTTrollhättan 2–4 Jonkopings Sodra · Trollhättan win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trollhättan are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trollhättan 41%, draw 26%, Jonkopings Sodra 33%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Trollhättan v Jonkopings SodraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Trollhättan win41%
Draw26%
Jonkopings Sodra win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundSödra · matchday 28

VenueEdsborgs IP

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trollhättan

Jonkopings Sodra

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Ettan - Södra

Last match: 17 Oct · Ettan - Södra

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Trollhättan27+238
9Jonkopings Sodra27+336

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trollhättan winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
41% The market38%
Us41%
Market38%

We make Trollhättan a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Trollhättan v Jonkopings Sodra1.39 – 1.21
Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 16 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 38 v 367 v 9
The market · Trollhättan win38% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:29
Our probability · Trollhättan win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Trollhättan win41%38%+3
Draw26%28%−2
Jonkopings Sodra win33%34%−1
Over 2.5 goals48%53%−5
Both teams to score52%58%−6
Over 1.5 goals73%75%−2
Over 3.5 goals27%33%−6
Trollhättan or draw67%66%+1
Trollhättan clean sheet30%––
Jonkopings Sodra clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%
0123450 7.7 9.1 5.4 2.2 1 10.4 12.3 7.4 3.0 2 7.2 8.5 5.1 2.1 3 3.4 4.0 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Trollhättan down, Jonkopings Sodra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.53 of 6
Both scored4 of 6
Last meetingsJON 4–1 TRO · TRO 0–1 JON · JON 2–1 TRO · JON 1–1 TRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 16 Sept

TROLLHÄTTAN

WWWDLL3–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 1–3

JONKOPINGS SODRA

WWLLLW1–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Trelleborg27+3160
2Hässleholms IF27+1851
3Atvidabergs FF27+1347
4Lund27+1644
5AFC Malmo27+1144
6Rosengård27+440
7Trollhättan27+238
8Tvååker28−338
9Jonkopings Sodra27+336
10Olympic27+136
11Skövde AIK27−934
12Eskilsminne27−933
13Kristianstad27−830
14Laholm27−1029
15Angelholms FF27−1524
16Utsikten28−4512

The competition's standings before kick-off.