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Trelleborg v Kristianstad

Trelleborg

2–0Full time

Kristianstad

Ettan - Södra · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Trelleborg 2–0 Kristianstad TRELLEBORG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Trelleborg win~~62%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.219

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.165

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trelleborg win at 62%.
1′KICK-OFF Trelleborg v Kristianstad
2′Much as we predicted: Trelleborg was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–21–18
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Trelleborg 1–0 Kristianstad
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Trelleborg 2–0 Kristianstad
23′N. Bergmark scores for Trelleborg on 19′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Trelleborg win: 62% at kick-off, 95% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' A. Kamp · Kristianstad
43′We published Trelleborg at 62%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Trelleborg 2–0 Kristianstad
46′SECOND HALF Trelleborg 2–0 Kristianstad
47′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–1
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Trelleborg · On: E. Lofberg · Off: E. Jaf Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Kristianstad · On: S. Wikstrom · Off: V. Lindberg
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Kristianstad · On: K. Nennesson · Off: P. Chrupalla
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Trelleborg · On: J. Brannefalk · Off: N. Bergmark
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kristianstad · On: O. Kronvall · Off: O. Dampha
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kristianstad · On: T. Strobeck · Off: A. Kamp
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Trelleborg
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Kristianstad
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Trelleborg · On: V. Karlsson · Off: A. Asani
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Trelleborg · On: I. Ellbring · Off: J. Gudmundsson
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Trelleborg
88′We published Trelleborg at 62%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' J. Brannefalk · Trelleborg
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Trelleborg
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Trelleborg
FTFULL TIME Trelleborg 2–0 Kristianstad
FTTrelleborg 2–0 Kristianstad · Trelleborg win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Trelleborg win62%

Draw20%

Kristianstad win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Trelleborg

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Pahlsson

4 A. Rehn

18 J. Modig

5 A. Ogwuche

3 O. Sverrisson

6 A. Asani

22 N. Bergmark

7 J. Christiansen

14 J. Gudmundsson

21 O. Gabrielsson

9 E. Jaf

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · W. Malmgren

2 · J. Brannefalk

10 · S. Tipura

15 · V. Karlsson

17 · I. Ellbring

20 · K. Fosuhene Asare

25 · E. Lofberg

Kristianstad

Formation not confirmed

50 O. Larsson

21 V. Lindberg

6 K. Alsen

3 L. Svensson

5 V. Agardius

15 A. Hughes

19 S. Svedin

8 A. Kamp

20 P. Chrupalla

9 O. Dampha

11 P. Lilja

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · M. Softberg

2 · W. Klevendal

7 · S. Wikstrom

10 · T. Strobeck

16 · V. Asterman Fridman

24 · K. Nennesson

25 · O. Kronvall

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Trelleborg

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Pahlsson

4 A. Rehn

18 J. Modig

5 A. Ogwuche

3 O. Sverrisson

6 A. Asani

22 N. Bergmark

7 J. Christiansen

14 J. Gudmundsson

21 O. Gabrielsson

9 E. Jaf

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · W. Malmgren

2 · J. Brannefalk

10 · S. Tipura

15 · V. Karlsson

17 · I. Ellbring

20 · K. Fosuhene Asare

25 · E. Lofberg

Kristianstad

Formation not confirmed

50 O. Larsson

21 V. Lindberg

6 K. Alsen

3 L. Svensson

5 V. Agardius

15 A. Hughes

19 S. Svedin

8 A. Kamp

20 P. Chrupalla

9 O. Dampha

11 P. Lilja

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · M. Softberg

2 · W. Klevendal

7 · S. Wikstrom

10 · T. Strobeck

16 · V. Asterman Fridman

24 · K. Nennesson

25 · O. Kronvall

Our number · trelleborg winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

62% The market67%

Us62%

~~Market~~67%

We make Trelleborg a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trelleborg win	62%	67%	−5
Draw	20%	19%	+1
Kristianstad win	18%	14%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	59%	60%	0
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	39%	−1
Trelleborg or draw	82%	86%	−4
Trelleborg clean sheet	37%	–	–
Kristianstad clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.8%

0123450 4.8 4.7 2.4 1 9.6 9.4 4.8 2 9.8 9.6 4.9 3 6.8 6.7 3.4 4 3.6 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trelleborg down, Kristianstad across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,400 Ettan - Södra matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.0% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trelleborg at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kristianstad away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Trelleborg, 1.01 for Kristianstad. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KRI 0–0 TRE

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra

TRELLEBORG

LWWWWW1–2 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 2–0

KRISTIANSTAD

LDLWWL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	25	+27	54
2	Atvidabergs FF	25	+14	46
3	Hässleholms IF	25	+16	45
4	Lund	25	+17	41
5	AFC Malmo	25	+10	41
6	Trollhättan	25	+5	38
7	Rosengård	25	+4	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	25	+3	33
9	Tvååker	25	−6	33
10	Skövde AIK	25	−7	33
11	Eskilsminne	25	−4	32
12	Olympic	25	−7	30
13	Kristianstad	25	−8	27
14	Laholm	25	−11	25
15	Angelholms FF	25	−16	21
16	Utsikten	25	−37	12