Trelleborg v Atvidabergs FF prediction · Ettan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TrelleborgDrawAtvidabergs FF

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Trelleborg 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trelleborg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trelleborg 58%, draw 20%, Atvidabergs FF 22%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Trelleborg v Atvidabergs FFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Trelleborg win58%

Draw20%

Atvidabergs FF win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundSödra · matchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trelleborg

Atvidabergs FF

9Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Ettan - Södra

Last match: 17 Oct · Ettan - Södra

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trelleborg winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

58% The market48%

Us58%

~~Market~~48%

We make Trelleborg a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trelleborg v Atvidabergs FF~~2.21 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 16 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 60 v 47~~1 v 4

~~The market · Trelleborg win~~48% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trelleborg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trelleborg win	58%	48%	+10
Draw	20%	25%	−5
Atvidabergs FF win	22%	26%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	67%	55%	+12
Both teams to score	63%	58%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	86%	77%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	46%	34%	+12
Trelleborg or draw	78%	74%	+4
Trelleborg clean sheet	28%	–	–
Atvidabergs FF clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.3 4.1 2.6 1 6.9 8.6 5.5 2.4 2 7.5 9.3 5.9 2.5 3 5.4 6.8 4.3 4 3.0 3.8 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trelleborg down, Atvidabergs FF across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,423 Ettan - Södra matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 223 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trelleborg at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atvidabergs FF away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Trelleborg, 1.28 for Atvidabergs FF. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ATV 1–2 TRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 16 Sept

TRELLEBORG

WWWWWW4–3 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 4–2

ATVIDABERGS FF

LWWDDL0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	27	+31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	28	+18	52
3	Lund	28	+19	47
4	Atvidabergs FF	27	+13	47
5	AFC Malmo	28	+10	44
6	Rosengård	28	+3	40
7	Jonkopings Sodra	28	+5	39
8	Trollhättan	28	0	38
9	Tvååker	28	−3	38
10	Olympic	28	−3	36
11	Skövde AIK	28	−9	35
12	Kristianstad	28	−7	33
13	Eskilsminne	28	−12	33
14	Laholm	28	−6	32
15	Angelholms FF	28	−14	27
16	Utsikten	28	−45	12