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Rosengård v Kristianstad

Rosengård

1–2Full time

Kristianstad

Ettan - Södra · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Rosengård 1–2 Kristianstad ROSENGÅRD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rosengård win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.761

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.708

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rosengård win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rosengård 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Rosengård v Kristianstad
19′Kristianstad find the net on 19′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–24–58
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Rosengård 0–1 Kristianstad
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Rosengård win: 45% at kick-off, 18% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Kristianstad win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Rosengård win 42%)
20′We said Rosengård at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–24–58
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 15–24–60
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Rosengård win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
34′We said Rosengård at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Kristianstad
39′Kristianstad ahead on 18′ through S. Svedin. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–24–63
39′🟨 YELLOW · 35' E. Igbonekwu · Rosengård
45′HALF-TIME Rosengård 0–2 Kristianstad
46′A goal for Kristianstad on 45′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–89
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Rosengård 0–2 Kristianstad
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Rosengård win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
46′SECOND HALF Rosengård 0–2 Kristianstad
47′We said Rosengård at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–89
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rosengård · On: J. Lynard · Off: E. Igbonekwu
51′A goal for Rosengård on 51′. 0–2 · 2–7–91
51′We said Rosengård at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
51′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 9–24–67
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Rosengård 1–2 Kristianstad
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Rosengård win: 45% at kick-off, 9% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Rosengård
54′50′: J. Voelkerling Persson on the scoresheet for Rosengård, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–24–68
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Rosengård win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Kristianstad
72′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Kristianstad · On: A. Henningsson · Off: T. Strobeck
72′🟨 YELLOW · 69' P. Lilja · Kristianstad
73′🟨 YELLOW · 65' G. Ankamafio · Rosengård
81′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rosengård · On: Z. Salifu · Off: N. Soderberg
FTFULL TIME Rosengård 1–2 Kristianstad
FTRosengård 1–2 Kristianstad · Rosengård win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rosengård are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rosengård 45%, draw 26%, Kristianstad 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Rosengård v KristianstadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rosengård win45%

Draw26%

Kristianstad win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundSödra · matchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rosengård

Kristianstad

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Ettan - Södra

Last match: 18 Oct · Ettan - Södra

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Rosengård	27	+4	40
13	Kristianstad	27	−8	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rosengård winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make Rosengård a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rosengård v Kristianstad~~1.49 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 17 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 40 v 30~~6 v 13

~~The market · Rosengård win~~42% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rosengård win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rosengård win	45%	42%	+3
Draw	26%	26%	0
Kristianstad win	30%	32%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Both teams to score	52%	61%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	37%	−9
Rosengård or draw	70%	68%	+2
Rosengård clean sheet	32%	–	–
Kristianstad clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.3 8.3 4.8 1 10.6 12.0 6.9 2.7 2 7.8 8.9 5.1 2.0 3 3.9 4.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rosengård down, Kristianstad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,417 Ettan - Södra matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.71 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rosengård at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kristianstad away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Rosengård, 1.16 for Kristianstad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~KRI 1–2 ROS · KRI 0–2 ROS · ROS 2–1 KRI · KRI 0–2 ROS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 17 Sept

ROSENGÅRD

LDWLDD3–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

KRISTIANSTAD

LWWLLW0–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	27	+31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	27	+18	51
3	Atvidabergs FF	27	+13	47
4	Lund	27	+16	44
5	AFC Malmo	27	+11	44
6	Rosengård	27	+4	40
7	Trollhättan	27	+2	38
8	Tvååker	28	−3	38
9	Jonkopings Sodra	27	+3	36
10	Olympic	27	+1	36
11	Skövde AIK	27	−9	34
12	Eskilsminne	27	−9	33
13	Kristianstad	27	−8	30
14	Laholm	27	−10	29
15	Angelholms FF	27	−15	24
16	Utsikten	28	−45	12