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Rosengård v Atvidabergs FF

Rosengård

1–1Full time

Atvidabergs FF

Ettan - Södra · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Rosengård 1–1 Atvidabergs FF ROSENGÅRD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Rosengård win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.876

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.858

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rosengård win at 40%.
16′Little has changed for our model: Rosengård 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–35
45′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Rosengård
45′HALF-TIME Rosengård 0–0 Atvidabergs FF
47′🟨 YELLOW · 23' O. Hakansson · Rosengård
47′🟨 YELLOW · 28' K. Pasalic · Rosengård
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45' J. Hedstrom · Atvidabergs FF
47′SECOND HALF Rosengård 0–0 Atvidabergs FF
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Rosengård 0–1 Atvidabergs FF
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rosengård · On: L. Carlius · Off: Z. Salifu
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atvidabergs FF · On: E. Grandelius · Off: J. Hedstrom
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atvidabergs FF · On: E. Grandelius · Off: J. Hedstrom
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Rosengård 1–1 Atvidabergs FF
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Rosengård 1–1 Atvidabergs FF
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rosengård · On: G. Backaliden · Off: K. Pasalic
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atvidabergs FF · On: A. Bergstrom · Off: S. Sotra
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atvidabergs FF · On: L. Brahim · Off: A. Saedi
FTFULL TIME Rosengård 1–1 Atvidabergs FF
FTRosengård 1–1 Atvidabergs FF · Rosengård win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Rosengård win40%

Draw24%

Atvidabergs FF win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Rosengård

Formation not confirmed

44 A. Vaporakis

3 K. Larsson

6 M. Ritari

9 J. Voelkerling Persson

11 N. Soderberg

18 M. Andersson

23 O. Hakansson

25 F. Petersen

26 Z. Salifu

28 K. Pasalic

42 G. Ankamafio

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · A. Mayland

10 · A. Malaj

12 · R. Bonde

14 · L. Carlius

19 · G. Backaliden

20 · A. Dumbuya

21 · I. Ljajic

Atvidabergs FF

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Claesson

3 C. Thulin

4 T. Ostlund

5 A. Kachmar

7 A. Samuelsson

9 H. Radetinac

16 J. Hedstrom

18 J. Lindvall

21 S. Sotra

22 A. Saedi

24 J. Sivertsen

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · K. Eriksson

2 · A. Skogo

6 · M. Assarsson

8 · V. Kamf

15 · A. Bergstrom

19 · L. Brahim

20 · E. Grandelius

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rosengård

Formation not confirmed

44 A. Vaporakis

3 K. Larsson

6 M. Ritari

9 J. Voelkerling Persson

11 N. Soderberg

18 M. Andersson

23 O. Hakansson

25 F. Petersen

26 Z. Salifu

28 K. Pasalic

42 G. Ankamafio

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · A. Mayland

10 · A. Malaj

12 · R. Bonde

14 · L. Carlius

19 · G. Backaliden

20 · A. Dumbuya

21 · I. Ljajic

Atvidabergs FF

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Claesson

3 C. Thulin

4 T. Ostlund

5 A. Kachmar

7 A. Samuelsson

9 H. Radetinac

16 J. Hedstrom

18 J. Lindvall

21 S. Sotra

22 A. Saedi

24 J. Sivertsen

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · K. Eriksson

2 · A. Skogo

6 · M. Assarsson

8 · V. Kamf

15 · A. Bergstrom

19 · L. Brahim

20 · E. Grandelius

Our number · rosengård winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Rosengård a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rosengård win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rosengård win	40%	45%	−4
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Atvidabergs FF win	36%	30%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	59%	60%	0
Both teams to score	61%	61%	0
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	39%	−1
Rosengård or draw	64%	70%	−6
Rosengård clean sheet	23%	–	–
Atvidabergs FF clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.7 6.9 5.1 2.6 1 7.4 10.7 7.9 4.0 2 5.8 8.4 6.2 3.1 3 3.1 4.5 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rosengård down, Atvidabergs FF across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,400 Ettan - Södra matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.0% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rosengård at home: 2.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Atvidabergs FF away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Rosengård, 1.50 for Atvidabergs FF. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ATV 3–3 ROS

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra

ROSENGÅRD

WLLDWL4–2 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

ATVIDABERGS FF

DWLWWD2–2 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	25	+27	54
2	Atvidabergs FF	25	+14	46
3	Hässleholms IF	25	+16	45
4	Lund	25	+17	41
5	AFC Malmo	25	+10	41
6	Trollhättan	25	+5	38
7	Rosengård	25	+4	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	25	+3	33
9	Tvååker	25	−6	33
10	Skövde AIK	25	−7	33
11	Eskilsminne	25	−4	32
12	Olympic	25	−7	30
13	Kristianstad	25	−8	27
14	Laholm	25	−11	25
15	Angelholms FF	25	−16	21
16	Utsikten	25	−37	12