Olympic v Utsikten prediction · Ettan - Södra

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Olympic 4–1 Utsikten OLYMPIC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olympic win~~68%

~~The market said~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.149

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.070

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olympic win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: Olympic was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–16–15
1′KICK-OFF Olympic v Utsikten
5′Olympic score on 4′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–10–6
5′We published Olympic at 68%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–10–6
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Olympic 1–0 Utsikten
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Olympic win: 68% at kick-off, 85% now
6′We published Olympic at 68%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–10–6
6′Olympic find the net on 6′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–2
6′We published Olympic at 68%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–2
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Olympic 2–0 Utsikten
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Olympic win: 68% at kick-off, 94% now
17′A goal for Utsikten on 17′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 84–11–5
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Olympic 2–1 Utsikten
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Olympic win: 68% at kick-off, 84% now
19′Olympic score on 18′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
19′We published Olympic at 68%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Olympic 3–1 Utsikten
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Olympic win: 68% at kick-off, 95% now
30′4 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Olympic 3–1 Utsikten
46′SECOND HALF Olympic 3–1 Utsikten
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Utsikten
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Olympic · On: S. Yusuf · Off: A. Robert
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Olympic win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Olympic · On: H. Abdulla · Off: M. Moro
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Olympic · On: C. Nilsson · Off: C. Ejimole
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Utsikten · On: O. Ball · Off: F. Wennergrund
81′Olympic find the net on 80′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
81′We published Olympic at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Olympic 4–1 Utsikten
82′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.9 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Utsikten · On: K. Banozic · Off: M. Khalaf
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Olympic · On: M. Pavlak · Off: L. Bjorninger
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Olympic · On: E. Ologe · Off: A. Karlin
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Utsikten · On: E. Risp · Off: T. Sellstedt
FTFULL TIME Olympic 4–1 Utsikten
FTOlympic 4–1 Utsikten · Olympic win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olympic are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olympic 68%, draw 16%, Utsikten 15%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Olympic v UtsiktenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Olympic win68%

Draw16%

Utsikten win15%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundSödra · matchday 27

Line-ups

Olympic

Utsikten

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olympic

Utsikten

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Ettan - Södra

Last match: 11 Oct · Ettan - Södra

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Olympic	26	−2	33
16	Utsikten	26	−39	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Olympic

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Persson

2 J. Stern

4 M. Andersson

7 A. Robert

8 A. Karlin

9 C. Ejimole

10 O. Khattab

16 M. Moro

17 M. Egbe

22 A. Sundgren

26 L. Bjorninger

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · C. Nilsson

11 · S. Yusuf

19 · I. Chibuike

23 · E. Ologe

25 · H. Abdulla

29 · M. Pavlak

99 · N. Hallberg

Utsikten

Formation not confirmed

4 S. Bosnic

5 M. Khalaf

6 K. Berndtsson

8 F. Wennergrund

9 V. Gunnarsson

10 E. Andren

14 C. Juhlin

17 P. Olsson

22 D. Gustafsson

27 T. Sellstedt

29 J. Noller

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · E. Levin

3 · A. Lindquist

11 · O. Ball

16 · E. Risp

24 · K. Banozic

Our number · olympic winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

68% The market79%

Us68%

~~Market~~79%

We make Olympic a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olympic v Utsikten~~2.71 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 33 v 12~~11 v 16

~~The market · Olympic win~~79% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Olympic win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 68% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olympic win	68%	79%	−11
Draw	16%	13%	+3
Utsikten win	15%	8%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Both teams to score	64%	58%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	89%	88%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Olympic or draw	85%	92%	−7
Olympic clean sheet	31%	–	–
Utsikten clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.2 2.6 1 5.7 6.7 4.0 2 7.4 8.6 5.1 2.1 3 6.5 7.6 4.5 4 4.4 5.1 3.1 5 2.5 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Olympic down, Utsikten across0–5 goals a side shown (93.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,414 Ettan - Södra matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 214 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olympic at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Utsikten away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.71 goals for Olympic, 1.20 for Utsikten. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~UTS 1–3 OLY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 11 Sept

OLYMPIC

LWDLLW2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 7–2

UTSIKTEN

LDLWLL0–5 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	27	+31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	27	+18	51
3	Atvidabergs FF	27	+13	47
4	Lund	27	+16	44
5	AFC Malmo	27	+11	44
6	Rosengård	27	+4	40
7	Trollhättan	26	+4	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	27	+3	36
9	Tvååker	27	−6	35
10	Skövde AIK	27	−9	34
11	Olympic	26	−2	33
12	Eskilsminne	27	−9	33
13	Laholm	27	−10	29
14	Kristianstad	26	−10	27
15	Angelholms FF	27	−15	24
16	Utsikten	26	−39	12