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Lund v Trollhättan

Lund

4–3Full time

Trollhättan

Ettan - Södra · SAT 10 OCT · Klostergardens Idrottsplats

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

Lund 4–3 Trollhättan LUND WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lund win~~49%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.395

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.363

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Lund win49%

Draw23%

Trollhättan win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Klostergardens Idrottsplats

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lund winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

49% The market51%

Us49%

~~Market~~51%

We make Lund a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lund win	49%	51%	−2
Draw	23%	24%	−2
Trollhättan win	29%	25%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	62%	62%	0
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	41%	−1
Lund or draw	71%	75%	−4
Lund clean sheet	26%	–	–
Trollhättan clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.2 5.6 3.8 1 7.6 10.0 6.8 3.1 2 6.9 9.1 6.2 2.8 3 4.2 5.6 3.8 4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lund down, Trollhättan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,400 Ettan - Södra matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.0% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.64 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lund at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Trollhättan away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Lund, 1.36 for Trollhättan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.64

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~7 of 11

~~Last meetings~~TRO 1–1 LUN · LUN 1–1 TRO · TRO 1–5 LUN · TRO 0–2 LUN

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra

LUND

DWWLLL1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

TROLLHÄTTAN

WWWWWD4–2 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	25	+27	54
2	Atvidabergs FF	25	+14	46
3	Hässleholms IF	25	+16	45
4	Lund	25	+17	41
5	AFC Malmo	25	+10	41
6	Trollhättan	25	+5	38
7	Rosengård	25	+4	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	25	+3	33
9	Tvååker	25	−6	33
10	Skövde AIK	25	−7	33
11	Eskilsminne	25	−4	32
12	Olympic	25	−7	30
13	Kristianstad	25	−8	27
14	Laholm	25	−11	25
15	Angelholms FF	25	−16	21
16	Utsikten	25	−37	12