Lund v Trelleborg

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lund win at 38%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Lund 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–24–38
3. 1′KICK-OFF Lund v Trelleborg
4. 4′A goal for Trelleborg on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–20–62
5. 4′We said Lund at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–20–62
6. 4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Lund 0–1 Trelleborg
7. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Lund win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
8. 4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Trelleborg win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Lund win 18%)
9. 7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Trelleborg
10. 26′We said Lund at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–21–64
11. 30′Lund score on 30′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 35–30–35
12. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Lund 1–1 Trelleborg
13. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Lund win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
14. 38′Lund are down to ten from 38′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 34–33–33
15. 38′🟥 RED CARD · 38' Lund
16. 44′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Trelleborg · On: B. Antonsson · Off: N. Bergmark
17. 45′HALF-TIME Lund 2–1 Trelleborg
18. 46′SECOND HALF Lund 2–1 Trelleborg
19. 47′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 32–37–31
20. 47′A goal for Trelleborg on 47′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 32–37–31
21. 47′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 32–37–31
22. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Trelleborg win 31%)
23. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Lund 2–2 Trelleborg
24. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Lund win: 38% at kick-off, 32% now
25. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Lund win 32%)
26. 48′Lund find the net on 45′. 2–1. 2–1 · 69–22–9
27. 48′We said Lund at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 2–1 · 69–22–9
28. 48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Lund 2–1 Trelleborg
29. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Lund win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
30. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Lund win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
31. 49′GOAL DISALLOWED · 49' Trelleborg
32. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Lund win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
33. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Lund win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
34. 51′We said Lund at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 2–1 · 70–22–9
35. 52′A goal for Trelleborg on 52′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 30–40–30
36. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Lund 2–2 Trelleborg
37. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Lund win: 38% at kick-off, 30% now
38. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Lund win 30%)
39. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Lund win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
40. 61′Trelleborg score on 61′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 6–21–73
41. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Lund 2–3 Trelleborg
42. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Lund win: 38% at kick-off, 6% now
43. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Trelleborg win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 21%)
44. 62′We said Lund at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 2–3 · 6–21–74
45. 63′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 5–21–74
46. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Lund
47. 67′We said Lund at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–20–76
48. 67′60′: O. Gabrielsson on the scoresheet for Trelleborg, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 4–20–76
49. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Lund · On: A. Mehmedagic · Off: S. Lindfors
50. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Trelleborg · On: O. Ruuska · Off: K. Fosuhene Asare
51. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lund · On: I. Orajarvi · Off: D. T. Kolle
52. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Lund
53. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Trelleborg
54. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lund · On: J. Andersson · Off: E. Lindman
55. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lund · On: D. Olofsson · Off: J. Getachew
56. 84′Trelleborg find the net on 84′. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
57. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Lund 2–4 Trelleborg
58. 85′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
59. 86′Lund have ten men and Trelleborg ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–4 · 0–0–100
60. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Lund · On: F. Akdemir · Off: J. Jacobsson
61. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Trelleborg · On: I. Ellbring · Off: J. Christiansen
62. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Trelleborg · On: V. Karlsson · Off: J. Gudmundsson
63. 86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Trelleborg
64. FTFULL TIME Lund 2–4 Trelleborg
65. FTLund 2–4 Trelleborg · Lund win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.