Laholm v Tvååker prediction · Ettan - Södra

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

Laholm 1–1 Tvååker LAHOLM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Laholm win~~44%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.854

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.890

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Laholm win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Laholm was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–31
6′Much as we predicted: Laholm was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
23′L. Ragnarsson scores for Laholm on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–11
26′We published Laholm at 44%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–10
30′L. Ragnarsson scores for Laholm on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–10
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 41% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 71–20–9
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Laholm 1–1 Tvååker
37′36′ and it is 1–1: A. Ajdarevic on the scoresheet for Tvååker. 1–1 · 37–35–28
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 37% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 37% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 37% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 37% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 37% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Laholm win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
45′HALF-TIME Laholm 1–1 Tvååker
46′SECOND HALF Laholm 1–1 Tvååker
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Laholm
58′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Tvååker · On: L. Munther · Off: M. Sjoland
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' E. Berisha · Laholm
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Laholm
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Laholm · On: F. Andersson · Off: L. Cakolli
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Laholm · On: V. Rolfsson · Off: V. Johansson
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Tvååker
80′🟨 YELLOW · 15' M. Laci · Tvååker
80′⚽ GOAL · 22' Laholm 1–1 Tvååker · L. Ragnarsson
80′⚽ GOAL · 36' Laholm 1–1 Tvååker · A. Ajdarevic
80′🟨 YELLOW · 50' L. Cakolli · Laholm
80′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Tvååker · On: L. Munther · Off: M. Sjoland
80′🟨 YELLOW · 57' E. Berisha · Laholm
80′🟨 YELLOW · 59' G. Ibishi · Laholm
80′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Laholm · On: F. Andersson · Off: L. Cakolli
80′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Laholm · On: V. Rolfsson · Off: V. Johansson
80′🟨 YELLOW · 71' G. Gustavsson · Tvååker
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tvååker · On: I. Shamoun · Off: M. Laci
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Laholm · On: F. Hashani · Off: P. Comnell
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Laholm · On: J. Falk · Off: E. Berisha
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Tvååker · On: G. Bendrik · Off: H. Rodin Corrected
FTFULL TIME Laholm 1–1 Tvååker
FTLaholm 1–1 Tvååker · Laholm win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Laholm win44%

Draw25%

Tvååker win32%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

VenueGlanninge Park

Line-ups

Laholm

Tvååker

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Laholm

Tvååker

10Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Tvååker	25	−6	33
14	Laholm	25	−11	25

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Laholm

Formation not confirmed

30 M. Johnsson

22 L. Cakolli

27 G. Ibishi

12 O. Johansson

21 N. Hedstrom

19 L. Ragnarsson

15 E. Berisha

20 M. Andersson

9 S. Svensson

23 P. Comnell

14 V. Johansson

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · R. Lundgren

2 · F. Andersson

4 · J. Falk

6 · H. Johansson

7 · F. Hashani

18 · J. Larsson

25 · V. Rolfsson

Tvååker

Formation not confirmed

5 V. Gustavsson

7 F. Gustafsson

8 I. Wiman

9 A. Ajdarevic

11 M. Sjoland

16 M. Laci

20 H. Rodin

22 A. Johansson

24 T. Graudums

25 G. Gustavsson

35 A. Nielsen

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · L. Lehto

2 · G. Bendrik

10 · L. Munther

14 · L. Cronvall

15 · N. Lundgren

19 · I. Shamoun

Our number · laholm winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

44% The market49%

Us44%

~~Market~~49%

We make Laholm a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · laholm win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Laholm win	44%	49%	−6
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Tvååker win	32%	27%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	53%	61%	−8
Both teams to score	55%	62%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	80%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	31%	40%	−9
Laholm or draw	68%	73%	−5
Laholm clean sheet	29%	–	–
Tvååker clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.4 7.9 4.9 2.1 1 9.5 11.6 7.3 3.1 2 7.2 8.8 5.5 2.3 3 3.7 4.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Laholm down, Tvååker across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,407 Ettan - Södra matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 207 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Laholm at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Tvååker away: 2.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Laholm, 1.26 for Tvååker. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TVA 1–2 LAH

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra

LAHOLM

LWDLLW2–4 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–0

TVÅÅKER

WDLLLL1–0 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	26	+29	57
2	Hässleholms IF	26	+17	48
3	Atvidabergs FF	26	+14	47
4	Lund	26	+18	44
5	AFC Malmo	26	+12	44
6	Rosengård	26	+4	39
7	Trollhättan	26	+4	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	26	+2	33
9	Olympic	26	−2	33
10	Tvååker	25	−6	33
11	Skövde AIK	26	−9	33
12	Eskilsminne	26	−9	32
13	Kristianstad	26	−10	27
14	Laholm	25	−11	25
15	Angelholms FF	26	−14	24
16	Utsikten	26	−39	12