Kristianstad v Trollhättan prediction · Ettan

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Kristianstad 3–1 Trollhättan TROLLHÄTTAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trollhättan win~~40%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.617

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.696

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trollhättan win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Trollhättan was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 36–24–39
1′KICK-OFF Kristianstad v Trollhättan
4′PENALTY MISSED · 3' Kristianstad
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Kristianstad
39′Kristianstad find the net on 38′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–22–12
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Kristianstad 1–0 Trollhättan
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Trollhättan win: 40% at kick-off, 12% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Kristianstad win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Trollhättan win 12%)
40′We said Trollhättan at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–0 · 66–22–12
40′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Trollhättan
45′HALF-TIME Kristianstad 1–0 Trollhättan
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Trollhättan win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
46′SECOND HALF Kristianstad 1–0 Trollhättan
47′A goal for Kristianstad on 47′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–8–2
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Kristianstad 2–0 Trollhättan
48′We said Trollhättan at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 90–8–2
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Trollhättan · On: H. Abdirsak · Off: M. Berg
49′We said Trollhättan at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
50′Kristianstad score on 49′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Kristianstad 3–0 Trollhättan
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Trollhättan win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
53′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Trollhättan · On: T. Sernling · Off: A. Gashi
53′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Trollhättan · On: W. Henriksson · Off: N. Lunden
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Kristianstad · On: A. Henningsson · Off: T. Strobeck
61′Trollhättan find the net on 60′. 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
61′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 94–5–1
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Kristianstad 3–1 Trollhättan
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Kristianstad · On: O. Kronvall · Off: P. Lilja
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Kristianstad · On: P. Chrupalla · Off: A. Hughes
FTFULL TIME Kristianstad 3–1 Trollhättan
FTKristianstad 3–1 Trollhättan · Trollhättan win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Trollhättan just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kristianstad 37%, draw 24%, Trollhättan 40%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Kristianstad v TrollhättanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kristianstad win37%

Draw24%

Trollhättan win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundSödra · matchday 27

VenueKristianstads Fotbollsarena

Line-ups

Kristianstad

Trollhättan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kristianstad

Trollhättan

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Ettan - Södra

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Trollhättan	26	+4	38
14	Kristianstad	26	−10	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kristianstad

Formation not confirmed

3 L. Svensson

5 V. Agardius

6 K. Alsen

8 A. Kamp

9 O. Dampha

10 T. Strobeck

11 P. Lilja

15 A. Hughes

19 S. Svedin

21 V. Lindberg

50 O. Larsson

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · W. Klevendal

14 · A. Henningsson

16 · V. Asterman Fridman

20 · P. Chrupalla

24 · K. Nennesson

25 · O. Kronvall

40 · V. Leffler

Trollhättan

Formation not confirmed

3 A. Gashi

5 N. Svensson

6 W. Jensen

8 O. Ocampo Hagglund

11 D. Burubwa

12 N. Lunden

13 M. Berg

15 V. Johansson

17 V. Hermansson

19 F. Sterner

25 A. Ibrahimovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Henriksson

14 · T. Sernling

16 · S. Banous

20 · W. Henriksson

22 · H. Abdirsak

Our number · trollhättan winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:28 · locked at kick-off

40% The market44%

Us40%

~~Market~~44%

We make Trollhättan a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kristianstad v Trollhättan~~1.49 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 27 v 38~~14 v 7

~~The market · Trollhättan win~~44% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trollhättan win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kristianstad win	37%	33%	+4
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Trollhättan win	40%	44%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	58%	59%	−1
Both teams to score	60%	61%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	37%	−1
Kristianstad or draw	60%	56%	+4
Kristianstad clean sheet	22%	–	–
Trollhättan clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.0 7.6 5.8 3.0 1 7.2 10.9 8.4 4.4 2 5.3 8.0 6.1 3.2 3 2.6 4.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kristianstad down, Trollhättan across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,414 Ettan - Södra matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 214 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kristianstad at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Trollhättan away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Kristianstad, 1.56 for Trollhättan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TRO 1–1 KRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 11 Sept

KRISTIANSTAD

DLWWLL0–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2

TROLLHÄTTAN

WWWWDL5–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 3–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	27	+31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	27	+18	51
3	Atvidabergs FF	27	+13	47
4	Lund	27	+16	44
5	AFC Malmo	27	+11	44
6	Rosengård	27	+4	40
7	Trollhättan	26	+4	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	27	+3	36
9	Tvååker	27	−6	35
10	Skövde AIK	27	−9	34
11	Olympic	26	−2	33
12	Eskilsminne	27	−9	33
13	Laholm	27	−10	29
14	Kristianstad	26	−10	27
15	Angelholms FF	27	−15	24
16	Utsikten	26	−39	12