Jonkopings Sodra v AFC Malmo prediction · Ettan

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Jonkopings Sodra 2–1 AFC Malmo JONKOPINGS SODRA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jonkopings Sodra win~~41%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.523

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.475

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jonkopings Sodra win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Jonkopings Sodra 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Jonkopings Sodra v AFC Malmo
8′Jonkopings Sodra score on 7′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
8′We said Jonkopings Sodra at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–19–12
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Jonkopings Sodra 1–0 AFC Malmo
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Jonkopings Sodra win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
18′We said Jonkopings Sodra at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Jonkopings Sodra win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 71–20–9
38′Jonkopings Sodra find the net on 38′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Jonkopings Sodra 2–0 AFC Malmo
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Jonkopings Sodra win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
39′We said Jonkopings Sodra at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' AFC Malmo
45′HALF-TIME Jonkopings Sodra 2–0 AFC Malmo
47′SECOND HALF Jonkopings Sodra 2–0 AFC Malmo
51′We said Jonkopings Sodra at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' AFC Malmo · On: L. Minter Wettergren · Off: B. Nouri
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' AFC Malmo · On: A. Podrimcaku · Off: A. Reuterskiold
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' AFC Malmo · On: P. Petrovic · Off: E. Alievski
73′A goal for AFC Malmo on 73′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–14–2
73′We said Jonkopings Sodra at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Jonkopings Sodra 2–1 AFC Malmo
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Jonkopings Sodra win: 41% at kick-off, 85% now
74′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 85–13–1
78′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Jonkopings Sodra · On: K. Sarbring · Off: L. Lyck
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Jonkopings Sodra win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Jonkopings Sodra · On: R. Sillamaa · Off: F. Benatallah
90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' AFC Malmo · On: L. Larsen · Off: M. Fatahi
90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' AFC Malmo · On: K. Harletun · Off: M. Bjorkqvist
FTFULL TIME Jonkopings Sodra 2–1 AFC Malmo
FTJonkopings Sodra 2–1 AFC Malmo · Jonkopings Sodra win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jonkopings Sodra are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jonkopings Sodra 41%, draw 27%, AFC Malmo 32%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Jonkopings Sodra v AFC MalmoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Jonkopings Sodra win41%

Draw27%

AFC Malmo win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundSödra · matchday 27

VenueStadsparksvallen

Line-ups

Jonkopings Sodra

AFC Malmo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jonkopings Sodra

AFC Malmo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Ettan - Södra

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	AFC Malmo	26	+12	44
9	Jonkopings Sodra	26	+2	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Jonkopings Sodra

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Eriksson

2 L. Eek

3 A. Eriksson

7 F. Benatallah

9 L. Lyck

10 D. Kozica

11 A. Kiwarkis

13 H. Lyck

17 O. Almstrom

18 J. Drott

21 C. Farnerud

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · S. Svensson

4 · A. Karlsson

8 · A. Khoshaba

14 · C. Hellstrom

20 · R. Sillamaa

24 · R. Andersson

27 · K. Sarbring

AFC Malmo

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Brandin

2 S. Karim

3 A. Sjostrand Bjurnemark

6 B. Nouri

9 F. Bohman

10 A. Reuterskiold

19 M. Fatahi

21 F. Martinsson

22 E. Alievski

36 M. Bjorkqvist

99 C. Sener

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · E. Eminovic

5 · L. Larsen

7 · N. Kohler

8 · K. Harletun

14 · L. Minter Wettergren

17 · A. Podrimcaku

37 · P. Petrovic

Our number · jonkopings sodra winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market44%

Us41%

~~Market~~44%

We make Jonkopings Sodra a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jonkopings Sodra v AFC Malmo~~1.32 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 33 v 44~~9 v 5

~~The market · Jonkopings Sodra win~~44% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jonkopings Sodra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jonkopings Sodra win	41%	44%	−3
Draw	27%	27%	0
AFC Malmo win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	51%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	56%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	31%	−8
Jonkopings Sodra or draw	68%	70%	−2
Jonkopings Sodra clean sheet	33%	–	–
AFC Malmo clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.9 9.8 5.5 2.1 1 11.4 12.6 7.1 2.7 2 7.5 8.3 4.7 3 3.4 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jonkopings Sodra down, AFC Malmo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,409 Ettan - Södra matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 209 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Malmo away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Jonkopings Sodra, 1.13 for AFC Malmo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~AFC 1–0 JON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 12 Sept

JONKOPINGS SODRA

DWWLLL0–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–1

AFC MALMO

DLWWWW0–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	27	+31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	26	+17	48
3	Atvidabergs FF	26	+14	47
4	Lund	27	+16	44
5	AFC Malmo	26	+12	44
6	Rosengård	26	+4	39
7	Trollhättan	26	+4	38
8	Tvååker	26	−6	34
9	Jonkopings Sodra	26	+2	33
10	Olympic	26	−2	33
11	Skövde AIK	26	−9	33
12	Eskilsminne	26	−9	32
13	Kristianstad	26	−10	27
14	Laholm	26	−11	26
15	Angelholms FF	26	−14	24
16	Utsikten	26	−39	12