Home › Football › Ettan - Södra › Hässleholms IF v Jonkopings Sodra

Hässleholms IF v Jonkopings Sodra

Hässleholms IF

1–0Full time

Jonkopings Sodra

Ettan - Södra · SAT 10 OCT · Osteras IP

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Hässleholms IF 1–0 Jonkopings Sodra HÄSSLEHOLMS IF WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Hässleholms IF win~~48%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.408

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.638

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hässleholms IF win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hässleholms IF 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
1′KICK-OFF Hässleholms IF v Jonkopings Sodra
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Hässleholms IF win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′We said Hässleholms IF at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–43–21
45′SUBSTITUTION · 44' Jonkopings Sodra · On: C. Farnerud · Off: S. Crona Corrected
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Hässleholms IF win 36%)
45′SECOND HALF Hässleholms IF 0–0 Jonkopings Sodra
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Hässleholms IF 1–0 Jonkopings Sodra
49′⚽ GOAL · 50' Hässleholms IF 1–0 Jonkopings Sodra
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Hässleholms IF · On: L. Braun · Off: A. Hall
63′Hässleholms IF ahead on 50′ through A. Al Hamlawi. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Hässleholms IF win: 48% at kick-off, 84% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Hässleholms IF win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
68′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Jonkopings Sodra
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Jonkopings Sodra · On: R. Andersson · Off: F. Benatallah
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Jonkopings Sodra · On: K. Sarbring · Off: D. Kozica
84′We said Hässleholms IF at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Hässleholms IF win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Hässleholms IF · On: A. Romberg · Off: T. Ekstrom
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Hässleholms IF · On: L. Gunnarsson · Off: B. Catala
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Hässleholms IF · On: L. Skagerholm · Off: P. Carlsson
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Jonkopings Sodra
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Hässleholms IF win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Hässleholms IF 1–0 Jonkopings Sodra
FTHässleholms IF 1–0 Jonkopings Sodra · Hässleholms IF win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hässleholms IF win48%

Draw28%

Jonkopings Sodra win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Osteras IP

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Hässleholms IF

Formation not confirmed

31 E. Ursprung

6 A. Terzic

7 A. Andersson

8 J. Persson Ahstedt

11 A. Al Hamlawi

15 T. Ekstrom

16 A. Hall

21 B. Catala

22 J. Tikkanen

24 P. Carlsson

5 R. Jassim

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · L. Bengtsson

4 · M. Lerner

17 · L. Lundberg

18 · L. Gunnarsson

19 · L. Braun

20 · L. Skagerholm

23 · A. Romberg

Jonkopings Sodra

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Eriksson

2 L. Eek

3 A. Eriksson

6 S. Crona

7 F. Benatallah

9 L. Lyck

10 D. Kozica

11 A. Kiwarkis

13 H. Lyck

17 O. Almstrom

18 J. Drott

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · A. Karlsson

8 · A. Khoshaba

14 · C. Hellstrom

19 · R. Andersson

21 · C. Farnerud

27 · K. Sarbring

30 · S. Svensson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Hässleholms IF

Formation not confirmed

31 E. Ursprung

6 A. Terzic

7 A. Andersson

8 J. Persson Ahstedt

11 A. Al Hamlawi

15 T. Ekstrom

16 A. Hall

21 B. Catala

22 J. Tikkanen

24 P. Carlsson

5 R. Jassim

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · L. Bengtsson

4 · M. Lerner

17 · L. Lundberg

18 · L. Gunnarsson

19 · L. Braun

20 · L. Skagerholm

23 · A. Romberg

Jonkopings Sodra

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Eriksson

2 L. Eek

3 A. Eriksson

6 S. Crona

7 F. Benatallah

9 L. Lyck

10 D. Kozica

11 A. Kiwarkis

13 H. Lyck

17 O. Almstrom

18 J. Drott

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · A. Karlsson

8 · A. Khoshaba

14 · C. Hellstrom

19 · R. Andersson

21 · C. Farnerud

27 · K. Sarbring

30 · S. Svensson

Our number · hässleholms if winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

48% The market35%

Us48%

~~Market~~35%

We make Hässleholms IF a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hässleholms if win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hässleholms IF win	48%	35%	+13
Draw	28%	27%	0
Jonkopings Sodra win	25%	38%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	39%	51%	−12
Both teams to score	44%	56%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	66%	75%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	20%	31%	−12
Hässleholms IF or draw	75%	62%	+13
Hässleholms IF clean sheet	41%	–	–
Jonkopings Sodra clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 10.7 9.4 4.2 1 14.2 12.5 5.6 2 9.7 8.5 3.8 3 4.5 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hässleholms IF down, Jonkopings Sodra across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,400 Ettan - Södra matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.0% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hässleholms IF at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Jonkopings Sodra away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Hässleholms IF, 0.89 for Jonkopings Sodra. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~JON 2–0 HAS · HAS 1–2 JON · JON 2–1 HAS

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra

HÄSSLEHOLMS IF

WLWLLW2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

JONKOPINGS SODRA

LDWWLL0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	25	+27	54
2	Atvidabergs FF	25	+14	46
3	Hässleholms IF	25	+16	45
4	Lund	25	+17	41
5	AFC Malmo	25	+10	41
6	Trollhättan	25	+5	38
7	Rosengård	25	+4	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	25	+3	33
9	Tvååker	25	−6	33
10	Skövde AIK	25	−7	33
11	Eskilsminne	25	−4	32
12	Olympic	25	−7	30
13	Kristianstad	25	−8	27
14	Laholm	25	−11	25
15	Angelholms FF	25	−16	21
16	Utsikten	25	−37	12