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Eskilsminne v Olympic

Eskilsminne

2–7Full time

Olympic

Ettan - Södra · SAT 10 OCT · Harlyckan

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Eskilsminne 2–7 Olympic ESKILSMINNE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eskilsminne win~~49%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.767

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.545

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eskilsminne win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Eskilsminne was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–21–30
1′KICK-OFF Eskilsminne v Olympic
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Eskilsminne 0–1 Olympic
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Eskilsminne 0–1 Olympic
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Eskilsminne 1–1 Olympic · M. Moro
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Eskilsminne 1–1 Olympic
21′Eskilsminne ahead on 18′ through C. Ljung Hofvendahl. 1–1. 1–1 · 46–25–29
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Eskilsminne 1–2 Olympic · C. Ljung Hofvendahl
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Eskilsminne 1–2 Olympic
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Eskilsminne 1–3 Olympic · C. Ljung Hofvendahl
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' Eskilsminne 1–3 Olympic
42′41′ and it is 1–3: O. Khattab on the scoresheet for Olympic. 1–3 · 5–12–83
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Eskilsminne win: 49% at kick-off, 5% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Olympic win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Eskilsminne win 5%)
42′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Eskilsminne
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Eskilsminne 2–3 Olympic · O. Khattab
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Eskilsminne 2–3 Olympic
45′HALF-TIME Eskilsminne 2–3 Olympic
45′SECOND HALF Eskilsminne 2–3 Olympic
48′Eskilsminne ahead on 45′ through T. Bermudez. 2–3. 2–3 · 15–25–61
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Eskilsminne win: 49% at kick-off, 15% now
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Eskilsminne 2–4 Olympic · T. Bermudez
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Eskilsminne 2–4 Olympic
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Eskilsminne · On: H. Norrby · Off: T. Bermudez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Eskilsminne · On: C. Stark · Off: I. Johnsson
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Eskilsminne · On: C. Seger · Off: M. Larsson
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Eskilsminne · On: H. Lindahl · Off: C. Ljung Hofvendahl
69′A. Robert scores for Olympic on 56′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 1–5–94
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Eskilsminne win: 49% at kick-off, 1% now
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Eskilsminne 2–5 Olympic · A. Robert
75′⚽ GOAL · 76' Eskilsminne 2–5 Olympic
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Eskilsminne 2–6 Olympic · C. Ejimole
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Eskilsminne 2–6 Olympic
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Eskilsminne · On: M. Eriksson · Off: A. Gustafson
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Olympic · On: M. Pavlak · Off: A. Robert
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Olympic · On: H. Abdulla · Off: C. Ejimole
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Olympic · On: E. Ologe · Off: A. Karlin
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Olympic · On: S. Yusuf · Off: O. Khattab
89′Olympic ahead on 78′ through M. Moro. 2–6. 2–6 · 0–0–100
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Eskilsminne 2–7 Olympic · M. Moro
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Eskilsminne 2–7 Olympic
FTFULL TIME Eskilsminne 2–7 Olympic
FTEskilsminne 2–7 Olympic · Eskilsminne win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Eskilsminne win49%

Draw21%

Olympic win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Harlyckan

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Eskilsminne

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Pauli

2 E. Kurtulus

4 W. Westerlund

5 V. Andersson

6 C. Ljungberg

9 A. Gustafson

10 T. Bermudez

14 C. Ljung Hofvendahl

16 M. Larsson

17 I. Johnsson

21 A. Sjoberg

Coach · Roar Hansen

Substitutes

8 · H. Lindahl

11 · C. Stark

26 · M. Eriksson

30 · G. Pettersson

31 · H. Norrby

40 · I. Pettersson

99 · C. Seger

Olympic

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Persson

2 J. Stern

4 M. Andersson

7 A. Robert

8 A. Karlin

9 C. Ejimole

10 O. Khattab

16 M. Moro

17 M. Egbe

22 A. Sundgren

26 L. Bjorninger

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · C. Nilsson

11 · S. Yusuf

19 · I. Chibuike

23 · E. Ologe

25 · H. Abdulla

29 · M. Pavlak

99 · N. Hallberg

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Eskilsminne

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Pauli

2 E. Kurtulus

4 W. Westerlund

5 V. Andersson

6 C. Ljungberg

9 A. Gustafson

10 T. Bermudez

14 C. Ljung Hofvendahl

16 M. Larsson

17 I. Johnsson

21 A. Sjoberg

Coach · Roar Hansen

Substitutes

8 · H. Lindahl

11 · C. Stark

26 · M. Eriksson

30 · G. Pettersson

31 · H. Norrby

40 · I. Pettersson

99 · C. Seger

Olympic

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Persson

2 J. Stern

4 M. Andersson

7 A. Robert

8 A. Karlin

9 C. Ejimole

10 O. Khattab

16 M. Moro

17 M. Egbe

22 A. Sundgren

26 L. Bjorninger

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · C. Nilsson

11 · S. Yusuf

19 · I. Chibuike

23 · E. Ologe

25 · H. Abdulla

29 · M. Pavlak

99 · N. Hallberg

Our number · eskilsminne winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

49% The market35%

Us49%

~~Market~~35%

We make Eskilsminne a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · eskilsminne win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eskilsminne win	49%	35%	+14
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Olympic win	30%	40%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	70%	63%	+7
Both teams to score	69%	65%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	83%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	49%	43%	+6
Eskilsminne or draw	70%	60%	+10
Eskilsminne clean sheet	21%	–	–
Olympic clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.8 4.3 3.4 1 5.6 8.5 6.7 3.5 2 5.6 8.5 6.7 3.6 3 3.8 5.8 4.6 2.4 4 3.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eskilsminne down, Olympic across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,400 Ettan - Södra matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.0% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.43 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eskilsminne at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Olympic away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Eskilsminne, 1.59 for Olympic. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.43

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~OLY 2–1 ESK · ESK 2–0 OLY · OLY 2–1 ESK · ESK 1–1 OLY

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra

ESKILSMINNE

LLWDLW2–4 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

OLYMPIC

WLWDLL5–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	25	+27	54
2	Atvidabergs FF	25	+14	46
3	Hässleholms IF	25	+16	45
4	Lund	25	+17	41
5	AFC Malmo	25	+10	41
6	Trollhättan	25	+5	38
7	Rosengård	25	+4	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	25	+3	33
9	Tvååker	25	−6	33
10	Skövde AIK	25	−7	33
11	Eskilsminne	25	−4	32
12	Olympic	25	−7	30
13	Kristianstad	25	−8	27
14	Laholm	25	−11	25
15	Angelholms FF	25	−16	21
16	Utsikten	25	−37	12