Eskilsminne v Lund prediction · Ettan - Södra

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Eskilsminne 1–4 Lund LUND WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lund win~~42%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.506

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.546

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lund win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lund was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 35–22–42
1′KICK-OFF Eskilsminne v Lund
33′Lund find the net on 33′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–20–67
33′We published Lund at 42%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 13–20–67
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Eskilsminne 0–1 Lund
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Lund win: 42% at kick-off, 67% now
34′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 12–20–68
45′HALF-TIME Eskilsminne 0–1 Lund
46′We published Lund at 42%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–21–70
46′SECOND HALF Eskilsminne 0–1 Lund
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Lund win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
55′A goal for Lund on 55′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Eskilsminne 0–2 Lund
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Lund win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
56′We published Lund at 42%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
64′We published Lund at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
67′Lund score on 66′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Eskilsminne 0–3 Lund
69′We published Lund at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Eskilsminne · On: H. Norrby · Off: T. Bermudez
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Eskilsminne · On: W. Westerlund · Off: C. Ljung Hofvendahl
72′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Eskilsminne · On: H. Stoltz · Off: I. Johnsson
75′Lund find the net on 75′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Eskilsminne 0–4 Lund
76′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
77′A goal for Eskilsminne on 77′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Eskilsminne 1–4 Lund
78′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lund · On: F. Akdemir · Off: A. Mehmedagic
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Eskilsminne · On: H. Bengtsson · Off: M. Larsson
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Eskilsminne · On: V. Andersson · Off: A. Gustafson
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Lund
FTFULL TIME Eskilsminne 1–4 Lund
FTEskilsminne 1–4 Lund · Lund win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lund are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eskilsminne 35%, draw 22%, Lund 42%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Eskilsminne v LundBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Eskilsminne win35%

Draw22%

Lund win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundSödra · matchday 28

VenueHarlyckan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eskilsminne

Lund

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Ettan - Södra

Last match: 16 Oct · Ettan - Södra

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Lund	27	+16	44
12	Eskilsminne	27	−9	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lund winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market40%

Us42%

~~Market~~40%

We make Lund a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eskilsminne v Lund~~1.63 – 1.80

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 33 v 44~~12 v 4

~~The market · Lund win~~40% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lund win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eskilsminne win	35%	35%	0
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Lund win	42%	40%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	62%	+4
Both teams to score	66%	64%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	81%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	45%	41%	+4
Eskilsminne or draw	58%	60%	−2
Eskilsminne clean sheet	17%	–	–
Lund clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 6.0 5.3 3.2 1 5.4 9.4 8.3 5.0 2.3 2 4.4 7.6 6.7 4.0 3 2.4 4.1 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eskilsminne down, Lund across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,417 Ettan - Södra matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.57 goals a meeting; 7 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eskilsminne at home: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Lund away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Eskilsminne, 1.80 for Lund. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.57

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 7

~~Both scored~~7 of 7

~~Last meetings~~LUN 4–2 ESK · ESK 2–1 LUN · LUN 2–2 ESK · ESK 3–1 LUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 16 Sept

ESKILSMINNE

WDLWLD4–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–7 · 2–2

LUND

WLLLWL2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 4–3 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	27	+31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	27	+18	51
3	Atvidabergs FF	27	+13	47
4	Lund	27	+16	44
5	AFC Malmo	27	+11	44
6	Rosengård	27	+4	40
7	Trollhättan	27	+2	38
8	Tvååker	28	−3	38
9	Jonkopings Sodra	27	+3	36
10	Olympic	27	+1	36
11	Skövde AIK	27	−9	34
12	Eskilsminne	27	−9	33
13	Kristianstad	27	−8	30
14	Laholm	27	−10	29
15	Angelholms FF	27	−15	24
16	Utsikten	28	−45	12