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AFC Malmo v Skövde AIK

AFC Malmo

4–2Full time

Skövde AIK

Ettan - Södra · SAT 10 OCT · Hyllie IP

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

AFC Malmo 4–2 Skövde AIK AFC MALMO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AFC Malmo win~~58%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.264

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.293

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

0′Skövde AIK · CardYellow Card

0′AFC Malmo · CardYellow Card

45′AFC Malmo · GoalNormal Goal

45′Skövde AIK · GoalNormal Goal

90′AFC Malmo · GoalNormal Goal

90′Skövde AIK · GoalNormal Goal

Pre-match prediction

AFC Malmo win58%

Draw21%

Skövde AIK win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Hyllie IP

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

AFC Malmo

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Brandin

2 S. Karim

3 A. Sjostrand Bjurnemark

6 B. Nouri

8 K. Harletun

9 F. Bohman

10 A. Reuterskiold

19 M. Fatahi

21 F. Martinsson

22 E. Alievski

36 M. Bjorkqvist

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · L. Larsen

7 · N. Kohler

14 · L. Minter Wettergren

17 · A. Podrimcaku

25 · J. Sjoberg

37 · P. Petrovic

99 · C. Sener

Skövde AIK

Formation not confirmed

2 G. Elofsson

3 S. Johnson

4 A. Basic

6 E. Strom

7 E. Skillermo

8 A. Nygaard

10 E. Nordstrom

11 L. Samuelsson

14 L. Svensson

16 A. Sodeliden

25 A. Ibrahimovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · M. Agerborn

12 · V. Linnarsson

13 · A. Remmerfelt

15 · E. Yoro

18 · L. Land

22 · E. Olofsson

30 · G. Torstensson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AFC Malmo

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Brandin

2 S. Karim

3 A. Sjostrand Bjurnemark

6 B. Nouri

8 K. Harletun

9 F. Bohman

10 A. Reuterskiold

19 M. Fatahi

21 F. Martinsson

22 E. Alievski

36 M. Bjorkqvist

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · L. Larsen

7 · N. Kohler

14 · L. Minter Wettergren

17 · A. Podrimcaku

25 · J. Sjoberg

37 · P. Petrovic

99 · C. Sener

Skövde AIK

Formation not confirmed

2 G. Elofsson

3 S. Johnson

4 A. Basic

6 E. Strom

7 E. Skillermo

8 A. Nygaard

10 E. Nordstrom

11 L. Samuelsson

14 L. Svensson

16 A. Sodeliden

25 A. Ibrahimovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · M. Agerborn

12 · V. Linnarsson

13 · A. Remmerfelt

15 · E. Yoro

18 · L. Land

22 · E. Olofsson

30 · G. Torstensson

Our number · afc malmo winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

58% The market56%

Us58%

~~Market~~56%

We make AFC Malmo a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Malmo win	58%	56%	+2
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Skövde AIK win	21%	21%	0
Over 2.5 goals	62%	62%	+1
Both teams to score	59%	60%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	40%	0
AFC Malmo or draw	79%	79%	0
AFC Malmo clean sheet	32%	–	–
Skövde AIK clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.2 4.7 2.7 1 8.3 9.4 5.4 2.1 2 8.4 9.5 5.5 2.2 3 5.8 6.6 3.8 4 3.1 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Malmo down, Skövde AIK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,400 Ettan - Södra matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.0% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AFC Malmo at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Skövde AIK away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for AFC Malmo, 1.16 for Skövde AIK. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SKO 0–4 AFC

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra

AFC MALMO

DDLWWW2–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

SKÖVDE AIK

WWLLWW2–1 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	25	+27	54
2	Atvidabergs FF	25	+14	46
3	Hässleholms IF	25	+16	45
4	Lund	25	+17	41
5	AFC Malmo	25	+10	41
6	Trollhättan	25	+5	38
7	Rosengård	25	+4	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	25	+3	33
9	Tvååker	25	−6	33
10	Skövde AIK	25	−7	33
11	Eskilsminne	25	−4	32
12	Olympic	25	−7	30
13	Kristianstad	25	−8	27
14	Laholm	25	−11	25
15	Angelholms FF	25	−16	21
16	Utsikten	25	−37	12