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AFC Malmo v Angelholms FF

AFC Malmo

2–3Full time

Angelholms FF

Ettan - Södra · SAT 24 OCT · Hyllie IP

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

AFC Malmo 2–3 Angelholms FF AFC MALMO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AFC Malmo win~~60%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.033

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.016

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AFC Malmo win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AFC Malmo 60% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–20–20
1′KICK-OFF AFC Malmo v Angelholms FF
16′Angelholms FF score on 16′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 32–24–44
16′We said AFC Malmo at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–1 · 32–24–44
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' AFC Malmo 0–1 Angelholms FF
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' AFC Malmo win: 60% at kick-off, 32% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Angelholms FF win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was AFC Malmo win 56%)
19′Angelholms FF find the net on 18′. 0–2. 0–2 · 14–17–69
19′We said AFC Malmo at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–2 · 14–17–69
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' AFC Malmo 0–2 Angelholms FF
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' AFC Malmo win: 60% at kick-off, 14% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' AFC Malmo win: 60% at kick-off, 10% now
34′We said AFC Malmo at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–15–75
35′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Angelholms FF · On: J. Svensson · Off: W. Sonntag
44′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–2 · 7–14–80
45′HALF-TIME AFC Malmo 0–2 Angelholms FF
46′SECOND HALF AFC Malmo 0–2 Angelholms FF
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AFC Malmo · On: A. Podrimcaku · Off: M. Bjorkqvist
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AFC Malmo · On: P. Petrovic · Off: E. Alievski
53′We said AFC Malmo at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–84
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AFC Malmo · On: A. Podrimcaku · Off: M. Bjorkqvist
63′A goal for AFC Malmo on 62′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 10–26–63
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' AFC Malmo 1–2 Angelholms FF
63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' AFC Malmo · On: N. Kohler · Off: M. Fatahi
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Angelholms FF
71′Angelholms FF score on 70′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
71′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–5–94
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Angelholms FF · On: A. Touray · Off: M. Tshikupe
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Angelholms FF · On: E. Lipovica · Off: M. Ahlqvist
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' AFC Malmo 1–3 Angelholms FF
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' AFC Malmo win: 60% at kick-off, under 1% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AFC Malmo · On: K. Harletun · Off: B. Nouri
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Angelholms FF
94′AFC Malmo find the net on 90′. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–2–98
94′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–2–98
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' AFC Malmo 2–3 Angelholms FF
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Angelholms FF · On: E. Orrling · Off: A. Nilsson
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' AFC Malmo
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Angelholms FF · On: T. Boakye · Off: V. Carlsson
FTFULL TIME AFC Malmo 2–3 Angelholms FF
FTAFC Malmo 2–3 Angelholms FF · AFC Malmo win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AFC Malmo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AFC Malmo 60%, draw 20%, Angelholms FF 20%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on AFC Malmo v Angelholms FFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

AFC Malmo win60%

Draw20%

Angelholms FF win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundSödra · matchday 28

VenueHyllie IP

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AFC Malmo

Angelholms FF

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Ettan - Södra

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	AFC Malmo	27	+11	44
15	Angelholms FF	27	−15	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afc malmo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

60% The market57%

Us60%

~~Market~~57%

We make AFC Malmo a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AFC Malmo v Angelholms FF~~2.15 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 16 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 44 v 24~~5 v 15

~~The market · AFC Malmo win~~57% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AFC Malmo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Malmo win	60%	57%	+3
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Angelholms FF win	20%	20%	0
Over 2.5 goals	64%	61%	+3
Both teams to score	60%	60%	0
Over 1.5 goals	84%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	42%	41%	+1
AFC Malmo or draw	80%	80%	0
AFC Malmo clean sheet	32%	–	–
Angelholms FF clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.9 4.4 2.6 1 8.0 9.1 5.2 2.1 2 8.4 9.5 5.5 2.2 3 6.0 6.8 3.9 4 3.3 3.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Malmo down, Angelholms FF across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,417 Ettan - Södra matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Södra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AFC Malmo at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Angelholms FF away: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for AFC Malmo, 1.16 for Angelholms FF. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ANG 2–2 AFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Södra this season · since 16 Sept

AFC MALMO

LWWWWL0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–2

ANGELHOLMS FF

LDLWWL0–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trelleborg	27	+31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	27	+18	51
3	Atvidabergs FF	27	+13	47
4	Lund	27	+16	44
5	AFC Malmo	27	+11	44
6	Rosengård	27	+4	40
7	Trollhättan	27	+2	38
8	Tvååker	28	−3	38
9	Jonkopings Sodra	27	+3	36
10	Olympic	27	+1	36
11	Skövde AIK	27	−9	34
12	Eskilsminne	27	−9	33
13	Kristianstad	27	−8	30
14	Laholm	27	−10	29
15	Angelholms FF	27	−15	24
16	Utsikten	28	−45	12