Vasalund v AFC Eskilstuna prediction · Ettan

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Vasalund 0–4 AFC Eskilstuna VASALUND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vasalund win~~41%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.605

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.467

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vasalund win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vasalund was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–21–38
1′KICK-OFF Vasalund v AFC Eskilstuna
45′HALF-TIME Vasalund 0–0 AFC Eskilstuna
46′SECOND HALF Vasalund 0–0 AFC Eskilstuna
55′We expected about 3.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 33–37–31
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Vasalund win 32%)
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Vasalund win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
64′We said Vasalund at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–44–27
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Vasalund
70′A goal for AFC Eskilstuna on 70′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–20–75
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' AFC Eskilstuna · On: E. Chabo · Off: A. Azizovic Corrected
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Vasalund 0–1 AFC Eskilstuna
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Vasalund win: 41% at kick-off, 5% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' AFC Eskilstuna win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' AFC Eskilstuna · On: A. Flodkvist · Off: L. Hanson Corrected
71′We said Vasalund at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
72′We said Vasalund at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
72′AFC Eskilstuna score on 72′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Vasalund 0–2 AFC Eskilstuna
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Vasalund win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
77′AFC Eskilstuna find the net on 76′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
77′Goals are coming at about the 3.9 we expected. 0–3 · 0–0–100
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Vasalund 0–3 AFC Eskilstuna
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vasalund · On: F. Lukic · Off: M. Ostergren Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vasalund · On: T. Gentele · Off: M. Nikolic Corrected
81′A goal for AFC Eskilstuna on 80′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
81′4 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Vasalund 0–4 AFC Eskilstuna
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Vasalund · On: B. Bilgec · Off: M. Degerlund
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' AFC Eskilstuna · On: M. Rydh · Off: M. Youla Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' AFC Eskilstuna · On: U. Amadi · Off: S. Skoldqvist Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Vasalund · On: J. Lundstrom · Off: M. Dejene
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Vasalund
FTFULL TIME Vasalund 0–4 AFC Eskilstuna
FTVasalund 0–4 AFC Eskilstuna · Vasalund win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vasalund just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Vasalund 41%, draw 21%, AFC Eskilstuna 38%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Vasalund v AFC EskilstunaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vasalund win41%

Draw21%

AFC Eskilstuna win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundNorra · matchday 27

VenueSkytteholms IP

Line-ups

Vasalund

AFC Eskilstuna

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vasalund

AFC Eskilstuna

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Ettan - Norra

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	AFC Eskilstuna	26	+11	47
12	Vasalund	26	−16	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vasalund

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Olafsson

2 L. Kallman

4 M. Degerlund

6 L. Lundvall

10 M. Nikolic

11 A. Khan

12 E. Torppa

14 C. Sliwo

19 M. Dejene

21 M. Bajrovic

28 M. Ostergren

Coach · –

Substitutes

8 · J. Lundstrom

9 · E. Mac Callum

15 · F. Lukic

23 · T. Gentele

24 · B. Bilgec

30 · I. Stattin

37 · N. Debesay

AFC Eskilstuna

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Dyplin

5 T. Parallangaj

7 L. Hanson

16 S. Skoldqvist

19 A. Mazalovic

23 M. Youla

25 V. Lif

30 I. Cherif Fofana

36 A. Onnebro

68 F. Rogic

99 A. Azizovic

Coach · Tony Andersson

Substitutes

2 · L. Mahmoud

9 · A. Flodkvist

10 · E. Chabo

12 · D. Bouvin

15 · U. Amadi

18 · E. Mahari

55 · M. Rydh

Our number · vasalund winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:28 · locked at kick-off

41% The market31%

Us41%

~~Market~~31%

We make Vasalund a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vasalund v AFC Eskilstuna~~1.98 – 1.88

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 47~~12 v 4

~~The market · Vasalund win~~31% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vasalund win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vasalund win	41%	31%	+10
Draw	21%	24%	−3
AFC Eskilstuna win	38%	44%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	74%	64%	+10
Both teams to score	72%	66%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	89%	83%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	54%	44%	+10
Vasalund or draw	62%	56%	+6
Vasalund clean sheet	16%	–	–
AFC Eskilstuna clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.3 4.0 3.8 2.4 1 4.2 7.9 7.2 4.5 2.2 2 4.2 7.6 7.1 4.4 2.1 3 2.8 5.0 4.7 2.9 4 2.5 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vasalund down, AFC Eskilstuna across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,412 Ettan - Norra matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 212 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.71 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vasalund at home: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Eskilstuna away: 3.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Vasalund, 1.88 for AFC Eskilstuna. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.71

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~AFC 0–3 VAS · VAS 4–2 AFC · AFC 0–2 VAS · AFC 2–3 VAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 12 Sept

VASALUND

LDLWLD1–2 · 0–0 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 3–3

AFC ESKILSTUNA

WWLWDL1–0 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	27	+42	61
2	Arlanda	27	+13	48
3	Enköping	27	+1	48
4	AFC Eskilstuna	26	+11	47
5	FBK Karlstad	27	+7	46
6	Hammarby Talang	26	+25	45
7	IF Karlstad	26	+15	44
8	Assyriska FF	26	−1	35
9	Umeå FC	26	−6	35
10	Karlberg	27	−10	33
11	Gefle IF	27	−14	32
12	Vasalund	26	−16	28
13	Sollentuna	26	−9	27
14	Piteå	26	−16	23
15	Järfälla	27	−21	22
16	Stocksund	27	−21	15