Umeå FC v Assyriska FF prediction · Ettan

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Umeå FC 3–1 Assyriska FF UMEÅ FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Umeå FC win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.470

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Umeå FC win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Umeå FC 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–23–32
1′KICK-OFF Umeå FC v Assyriska FF
3′A goal for Umeå FC on 3′. 0–0 · 44–24–32
3′We said Umeå FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–18–15
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Umeå FC 1–0 Assyriska FF
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Umeå FC win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
7′We said Umeå FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 2–0 · 86–9–5
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Umeå FC 2–0 Assyriska FF
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Umeå FC win: 44% at kick-off, 86% now
8′A goal for Umeå FC on 7′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 86–9–5
13′We said Umeå FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–0 · 95–3–1
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Umeå FC 3–0 Assyriska FF
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Umeå FC win: 44% at kick-off, 95% now
14′Umeå FC score on 14′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Umeå FC 3–0 Assyriska FF
45′SECOND HALF Umeå FC 3–0 Assyriska FF
66′We said Umeå FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
71′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–2–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Umeå FC 3–1 Assyriska FF
72′Assyriska FF find the net on 71′. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Assyriska FF
90′3–1 at the end. Our 44% on Umeå FC comes in. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Umeå FC 3–1 Assyriska FF
FTUmeå FC 3–1 Assyriska FF · Umeå FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Umeå FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Umeå FC 44%, draw 23%, Assyriska FF 32%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Umeå FC v Assyriska FFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Umeå FC win44%

Draw23%

Assyriska FF win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundNorra · matchday 27

VenueUmea Energi Arena

Line-ups

Umeå FC

Assyriska FF

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Umeå FC

Assyriska FF

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Ettan - Norra

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Assyriska FF	26	−1	35
9	Umeå FC	26	−6	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Umeå FC

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Eriksson

2 N. Linden

3 R. Andersson

7 A. Sandstrom

15 S. Wagnsson

16 Z. Bawa

17 S. Forsman

19 A. Shakir

23 I. Johansson

26 D. Ekman

33 J. Essombe Mambingo

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · L. Pihlblad

5 · N. Hakansson

9 · R. Hadad

12 · E. Yeboah

18 · E. Hrastovina

20 · H. Hassan

27 · F. Rhodin

Assyriska FF

Formation not confirmed

31 K. Osayi

3 L. Tahwildaran

4 S. Wandin

6 A. Kalabane

10 K. Jarrett-Marston

16 L. Hillemar

17 S. Nnamani

18 M. Larrain

22 M. Haddad

23 V. Asberg

2 E. Sjoblom

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · L. Jonsson

11 · J. Goncalves Karlstedt

12 · S. Edgren

19 · N. Jovanovic

21 · L. Ronnelow

24 · A. Jacob

Our number · umeå fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Umeå FC a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Umeå FC v Assyriska FF~~1.73 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 10 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 35 v 35~~9 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Umeå FC win	44%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Assyriska FF win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Umeå FC or draw	68%	–	–
Umeå FC clean sheet	24%	–	–
Assyriska FF clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.4 6.1 4.4 2.2 1 7.3 10.4 7.4 3.6 2 6.3 8.8 6.3 3.1 3 3.6 5.1 3.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Umeå FC down, Assyriska FF across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,412 Ettan - Norra matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ettan - Norra matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 212 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Umeå FC at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Assyriska FF away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Umeå FC, 1.44 for Assyriska FF. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~5 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ASS 1–5 UME · UME 3–1 ASS · ASS 1–2 UME · ASS 2–1 UME

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ettan - Norra this season · since 10 Sept

UMEÅ FC

LWWLWW0–4 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–1

ASSYRISKA FF

LLWLLW1–2 · 2–5 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	27	+42	61
2	Arlanda	27	+13	48
3	Enköping	27	+1	48
4	AFC Eskilstuna	26	+11	47
5	FBK Karlstad	27	+7	46
6	Hammarby Talang	26	+25	45
7	IF Karlstad	26	+15	44
8	Assyriska FF	26	−1	35
9	Umeå FC	26	−6	35
10	Karlberg	27	−10	33
11	Gefle IF	27	−14	32
12	Vasalund	26	−16	28
13	Sollentuna	26	−9	27
14	Piteå	26	−16	23
15	Järfälla	27	−21	22
16	Stocksund	27	−21	15